20140617-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_570kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 17 June 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market performance and key news updates from various regions, including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It also includes valuation comparisons for major oil and gas companies and oil service firms in Asia and globally.
Key Market Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Gained 0.4% overnight, with a 1-month change of 3.7% and a 1-week change of 3.5%.
- Henry Hub (Natural Gas): Down 0.4% overnight, with a 1-month change of 6.7% and a 1-week change of 1.6%.
- Gold: Down 0.4% overnight, with a 1-month change of -1.7% and a 1-week change of 1.6%.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Up 0.2% overnight, with a 1-month change of -0.1% and a 1-week change of -0.3%.
News Highlights
China
- Fuel Oil Imports: Expected to decline by 24% MoM in June to 1.03m tonnes, down 320k tonnes from May, and 52.8% YoY.
- Oil Product Inventories: Slightly increased for independent refiners in Shandong, with gasoil at 341kt and gasoline at 203.2kt.
- Sinopec: Increased caprolactam price for the second time in June by CNY200/tonne to CNY17,700/tonne, driven by strong upstream benzene prices.
Taiwan
- CPC Refinery Closure: Planning to phase out the Kaohsiung refinery complex by end-2015 due to economic unviability.
Russia
- Tatneft Profits: Increased by RUB7.4b in 1Q2015 compared to RUB17b in the same period last year.
- Shale Gas Development: Not viable for Russia at this time due to lower costs of conventional gas (USD2/MMBtu) compared to the USD8/MMBtu used by counterparties.
Malaysia
- SapuraKencana: Secured USD700m in rig contracts, including 3 new contracts and 1 charter extension. The company's 7 and 10-year-old rigs are performing well, with the T-10 rig transitioning from ready-stacked to active status.
- 1QFY1/15 Results: Expected to deliver ~MYR250m-270m in core net profit, contributing up to 20% of the full year's forecast. Newfield will be consolidated, adding a one-off economic profit.
Latest Reports
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- KE Rating: Buy
- Target Price: MYR5.30
- Performance: Secured USD700m in rig contracts, with strong demand for older rigs and expected earnings in the range of ~MYR250m-270m.
Perusahaan Gas Negara
- KE Rating: Hold
- Target Price: IDR5,500
- Performance: Earnings growth is expected to be weak, with margin pressure continuing. LNG operations in mid-2014 will support gas volume over the next three years, but at the expense of margins.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 16-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 9.58 | 11.50 | 224.2 | 89.0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.44 | 6.85 | 100.9 | 88.7 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 12.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 13.90 | NR | 80.1 | 94.8 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 426.90 | NR | 60.6 | 40.9 | 15.1 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 16.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,065.45 | NR | 57.2 | 75.5 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 366.85 | 400.00 | 11.6 | 17.5 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 25.1 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 590.95 | NR | 7.1 | 15.7 | 22.7 | 15.4 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 407.75 | NR | 2.3 | 12.0 | 27.5 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 11.82 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 26.3 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 6.28 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Asia Oil Service
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 16-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.59 | NR | 1.6 | 6.1 | 24.9 | 22.1 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.36 | NR | 12.7 | 22.9 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.81 | NR | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.7 | 24.8 | 24.5 | 15.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.12 | NR | 0.9 | 4.5 | 15.8 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 14.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.96 | NR | 0.8 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.74 | NR | 5.0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 26.1 | 1.4 | 4.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.73 | NR | 0.9 | 2.6 | 19.0 | 16.3 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 17.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Sapurakencana | SAKP MK | Buy | 4.21 | 5.30 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 40.2 | 23.3 | 32.0 | 19.0 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | Buy | 4.04 | 5.15 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 35.4 | 31.1 | 18.6 | 19.1 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
| Wah Seong | WSC MK | Hold | 1.84 | 1.33 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 44.1 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 5.15 | 6.44 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 46.7 | 23.4 | 53.4 | 17.2 | 15.4 | 5.8 | 0.3 |
Global Oil Service Average
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halliburton | HAL US | NR | 67.61 | NR | 57.1 | 424.7 | 28.5 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 14.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| Schlumberger | SLB US | NR | 107.05 | NR | 139.2 | 551.1 | 21.0 | 18.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 18.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Weatherford International | WFT US | NR | 22.20 | NR | 17.2 | 169.9 | n.a. | 20.5 | 8.2 | 6.8 | -4.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Transocean | RIG US | NR | 44.73 | NR | 16.2 | 199.1 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 5.5 |
Main Points
- Oil Price Trends: Brent crude gained 0.4%, while Henry Hub and gold prices declined.
- China's Oil Market: Fuel oil imports are expected to drop significantly, and oil product inventories for independent refiners in Shandong increased slightly.
- Sinopec's Strategy: Increased caprolactam prices due to strong benzene prices.
- Taiwan's Refinery Closure: CPC plans to shut down its Kaohsiung refinery by end-2015 due to economic reasons.
- Russia's Oil & Gas Outlook: Tatneft profits rose, but shale gas development is not viable due to low conventional gas costs.
- Malaysia's Oil Services: SapuraKencana secured significant contracts, showing strong demand for older rigs.
- Valuation Insights: Various companies in Asia and globally have different valuations based on P/E, EV/EBITDA, and other financial metrics.
Key Information
- The document highlights the current state of the oil and gas market, including price movements and company-specific updates.
- Valuation data is provided for both oil and gas companies and oil service firms, with a focus on financial metrics and target prices.
- Analysts from Maybank Kim Eng have provided ratings and target prices for several companies in the region, indicating investment outlooks.
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