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📊 Mengtuan-W (03690) Investment Analysis Summary
📃 October 4, 2024

1. Key Growth Drivers

• Service Retail (Offline-Online Integration):
  • Travel & Stay: Focuses on low-star, low-tier hotels, capitalizing on the growth of tourist demand, especially in niche destinations and county-level tourism. In 2024's May Golden Week, Q4-tier cities saw 140% YoY growth in bookings, outpacing the national average. The company maintains a strong market share (2nd among OTAs) and is well-positioned to benefit from increasing online penetration in budget hotels.
  • O2O Business: Ad revenue is a key contributor. Platforms like "推广通" drive ad-driven growth in categories like beauty, education, and leisure, which are increasingly shifting to lower-tier cities.
• Fintech Delivery (Shengong):
  • Leveraging a dense network of "闪电仓" (delivery hubs) and dedicated delivery infrastructure, Shengong is entering a post-loss phase in 2024. Profitability may improve through optimized delivery density,下沉 market expansion, and specialized delivery networks.

2. Competitive Landscape with Douyin

• The To-Store rivalry is set to persist with a 2:1 market share ratio stabilized between the two in Q4 2023–Q1 2024.
  • Key differences:
    • Mengtuan: Focuses on SMEs, emphasizing operational efficiency and local merchants.
    • Douyin: Targets big brands for content-driven growth.
• Tactical shifts: Douyin is scaling back on SME support in favor of “LKL” (key-label merchants), while Mengtuan is refocusing on ROI-driven growth by cutting subsidies and enhancing ad monetization.

3. Synergy Between To-Store & To-Home

• Unified Management: Bounced CEO centralized control in April 2024 for better coordination.
• Cross-Platform Marketing: Features like “秒提” (streamlined ordering) and integrated payment systems enhance user flow.
• Shen Membership: A unified loyalty program offering discounts across餐饮, beauty, and leisure is expected to drive cross-category usage and repeat purchases (Modelled after Amazon Prime).

4. Financial Projections

• Revenue: CAGR of 17% for 2024–26, reaching ~442B in revenue by 2026 (vs median industry P/E of 9x).
• Profitability: Non-GAAP profit is projected to grow 42% YoY in 2024–26, supported by declining OpEx and rising margins.

5. Risks

• Consumer Confidence: Any slowdown in consumption could impact restaurant orders, travel bookings, or Shengong usage.
• Regulatory Changes: Macroeconomic shifts or policy changes could limit growth in low-tier markets.
• Competitive Moves: If Douyin escalates its SME-focused strategy or enters new verticals (e.g., beauty), Mengtuan’s market share could erode.

Rating: BUY (maintained). Mengtuan continues to benefit from structurally sound growth in To-Store’s low-tier dominance and To-Home’s profitable delivery expansion.