20230723-天风证券-量化择时周报_短暂波折兑现后有望重启反弹_6页_554kb

Summary of Weekly Financial Engineering Report

Date: 2023-07-23
Author: Wu Xianxing

Key Market Overview

The market is currently in an oscillatory phase, with the Wind All-China Index dropping by 188% weekly. Smaller-cap stocks, as represented by the Citic 2000 Index, fell by 233%, while mid-cap midsize stocks (e.g., CSI 500) and large-cap stocks decreased by 174% and 198% respectively. Sectors like real estate and consumer staples showed strong gains, with real estate rising by 366%, while technology-heavy sectors such as communication fell sharply by 601%. Low trading volumes in certain areas suggest potential for rebounds.

Outlook for Rebound

A brief consolidation is expected to end soon, potentially leading to a sustained rebound. This is supported by positive macroeconomic factors, including recent urban renewal policies that boost risk appetite, upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions anticipated to increase confidence, and expectation of key upcoming meetings. Technical indicators show the market hitting a support level, with low trading volumes signaling a possible bottom.

Sector Recommendations

Based on the high-growth strategy model from the July 2023 report, prioritize sectors with expected growth acceleration: power generation, grid, power equipment, insurance, traditional Chinese medicine, and oil extraction. For themes, consider software that is contracting and may rebound, or infrastructure due to declining trade volume, indicating potential recovery.

Valuation and Suggested Position

The Wind All-China Index has a Price-to-Earnings (PE) at the 30th percentile (middle-low valuation) and Price-to-Book (PB) well below the 10th percentile (very low valuation). The portfolio allocation model advises maintaining an 80% stock position for absolute return products.

Risk Considerations

Market conditions could shift unexpectedly. The analysis is model-based on historical data, so future performance is not guaranteed. It's recommended to monitor risks, including potential policy changes and economic uncertainties.