世界银行-欧洲和中亚经济更新，2017年10月：移民与流动-2017.10-122页-7mb

Summary of "Migration and Mobility: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, October 2017"

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic developments and migration trends in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) in the context of a changing global and regional landscape. It outlines the economic performance of the region, the impact of migration on labor markets and social systems, and the policy implications for managing migration in the face of structural and cyclical challenges.

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: ECA is projected to grow at 2.2% in 2017, the strongest growth in six years and 0.3 percentage points higher than the May 2017 estimate.
• Regional Growth: Central Europe and the Western Balkans are expected to lead growth, with Central Europe growing at 3.7% and the Western Balkans at 2.8%.
• EU and Western Balkans: Growth in the EU and Western Balkans has been revised upward, though Southern Europe still lags.
• Eastern ECA: The region has a mixed outlook, with some countries recovering from recession while others, like Azerbaijan, remain in recession.
• Global Context: ECA outperforms the rest of the world in export growth, with a 7.8% increase in exports from ECA countries in the 12 months ending in July 2017.
• Industrial Production: Industrial production in ECA has strengthened, with a 4.2% increase in July 2017 compared to the previous year.
• Inflation and Unemployment: Inflation has normalized, and unemployment rates have declined across the region, especially in the EU.
• Fiscal Deficits: Fiscal deficits have improved, with an average of 1.6% of GDP in 2017 compared to 5% in 2009.

Migration and Mobility

• Refugee Crisis: The refugee crisis has raised concerns about migration in Europe, though the number of refugees in ECA is not unprecedented and tends to be temporary.
• Migration Patterns: Migration patterns in ECA are expected to change due to technological progress and increased cross-border connectivity.
• Public Perception: Public perception of migration is more positive in Northern Europe than in the rest of the region. Opposition to migration is often rooted in economic concerns rather than cultural ones.
• Asylum Seekers: Most asylum seekers in ECA come from the Middle East and North Africa.
• Asylum Rejection Rates: Asylum rejection rates in the EU are high.
• Temporary Migration: The share of temporary migration in total migration has increased in most ECA countries since 2000, and is positively correlated with the share of temporary employment.
• Labor Market Impact: Unemployment rates are higher for foreign-born workers in most ECA countries, and tertiary education rates are lower among foreign-born populations.
• Integration Policies: There is variation in the availability of integration policies for irregular migrants across ECA countries.
• Remittances: Many ECA countries depend on remittances, which have become an important source of income.
• Return Policies: Nearly all EU-13 countries have developed policies to encourage the return of their citizens.
• Migration Benefits: Migration has long been vital to the ECA region, with substantial benefits from cross-border labor mobility.

Structural Challenges

• Technological Changes: The rise of digital platforms and new technologies has increased labor market flexibility but also created challenges for traditional employment structures.
• Fragile Banking Sectors: Many ECA countries face fragile banking sectors, especially those reliant on commodity exports.
• Relative Price Adjustments: The eastern part of the region has not fully adjusted to the fall in oil prices, leading to a decline in private consumption.
• Regional Cohesion: Political and economic cohesion is being tested, particularly due to the Brexit vote and the weakening of the Eurasian Economic Union.
• Policy Reforms: Needed reforms in several ECA countries could help boost exports and better integrate migrants into host economies.

Key Information

• Growth Drivers: Strong export performance, industrial production, and fiscal improvements have driven the region's economic recovery.
• Migration Impact: Migration is seen as both a challenge and an opportunity, requiring policy adjustments to address labor market flexibility and integration.
• Future Outlook: The region faces an uncertain future due to ongoing structural and cyclical adjustments, with a need for policy reforms to support both migrants and host communities.

Conclusion

The ECA region is experiencing a period of strong economic growth, driven by robust industrial and export performance, and improved fiscal conditions. However, this growth is accompanied by structural challenges, including the impact of new technologies, the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and the need for better integration policies. Migration, while a source of anxiety, has historically played a crucial role in the region's economic development and is expected to continue doing so in the face of changing conditions.