2017年-世界发展银行全球_Europe_and_Central_Asia_Economic_Update_October_2017___Migration_and_Mobility_122页_7mb

Summary of "Migration and Mobility: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, October 2017"

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic developments and migration trends in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) in 2017, highlighting both the region's economic resilience and the evolving dynamics of migration. It outlines the economic performance, structural challenges, and policy implications related to migration and mobility.

Economic Outlook

GDP Growth and Regional Performance

• ECA GDP Growth: The region is projected to grow at 2.2% in 2017, the strongest growth in six years, with an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the May forecast.
• Regional Breakdown:
  • Western Europe: Growth is stable, with some countries like Germany and the Netherlands showing strong performance.
  • Central Europe: Expected to grow at 3.7% in 2017, continuing the trend of convergence toward EU levels.
  • Western Balkans: Growth is slightly below the EU average, with some countries like Kosovo and Serbia showing improvement.
  • Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Mixed performance, with some countries recovering from the 2014 oil price shock.
  • Russia: Growth is expected to reach 1.7% in 2017, up from negative rates in previous years.
  • Turkey: Strong growth at 4.0% in 2017, despite a slowdown in 2016 due to inflation and currency depreciation.

Inflation and Unemployment

• Inflation: Has normalized in the region, with average inflation in the EU approaching 2% in 2017.
• Unemployment: Has declined significantly in many countries, returning to pre-crisis levels in the EU-28.

Fiscal Position

• Fiscal Deficits: Have improved, with an average deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2017, down from 5% in 2009.
• Structural Challenges: The region faces significant structural issues, including the decline in full-time permanent jobs and the rise of flexible employment due to technological changes.

Migration and Mobility

Refugee Crisis and Public Perception

• Refugee Concerns: The refugee crisis has heightened European public concerns about migration.
• Public Perception: Positive in Northern Europe, but more negative in Southern and Eastern Europe.
• Immigration Sources: Most refugees and asylum seekers in ECA come from the Middle East and North Africa.
• Asylum Rejection Rates: Remain high in the EU, reflecting the region's cautious approach to immigration.

Migration Trends

• Temporary Migration: Has increased in many ECA countries, with a strong correlation between temporary employment and temporary migration.
• High-Skilled Migration: ECA countries are increasingly focusing on attracting high-skilled migrants.
• Education and Migration: ECA hosts a significant share of international tertiary students, indicating the region's appeal for education.

Impact of Migration on the Economy

• Economic Benefits: Migration has long been a key factor in economic development, with ECA economies benefiting from cross-border labor mobility.
• Social Integration: Policies to integrate irregular migrants vary across countries, and there is a need for more inclusive approaches.
• Remittances: Many ECA countries rely on remittances as a significant source of income, especially in the wake of the financial crisis.

Policy Recommendations

• Supportive Policies: Migration policies should remain supportive to harness the benefits of mobility and address new challenges.
• Adaptation to New Realities: Social security systems and labor market regulations need to adapt to the increasing flexibility in employment.
• Reforms for Export Growth: Needed reforms in oil-dependent countries could help boost export growth and economic resilience.

Key Challenges

• Technological Disruption: New technologies are reshaping labor markets, increasing flexibility but also creating uncertainty.
• Financial Risks: Low interest rates and weak banking sectors pose risks, especially for countries dependent on commodity exports.
• Political Cohesion: Regional political and economic cohesion is under pressure, with Brexit and the Eurasian Economic Union's performance affecting integration efforts.

Conclusion

The ECA region is experiencing a period of strong economic growth, driven by improved industrial production and export performance. However, structural challenges, including the impact of falling oil prices and technological changes, remain significant. Migration continues to play a crucial role in the region's economic and social fabric, and policies must evolve to support both migrants and host economies in this new era of mobility and economic transformation.