世界银行：2023年欧洲和中亚地区经济报告_100页_8mb

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update Summary (World Bank, Fall 2023)

Europe and Central Asia's (ECA) economic outlook is characterized by sluggish growth and rising risks amid global and regional challenges. Here is a summary of key points from the report covering developments up to September 2023 and projections through 2025.

Recent Key Developments

• Global growth slowed in 2023, with inflation easing but stickiness persisting. Geopolitical tensions, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, energy crises, and financial market volatility, weighed on growth.
• ECA's economy saw a revised growth forecast of 2.4% in 2023 (up from the June projection of 1.4%), driven by resilience in consumer spending and fiscal stimulus, especially in Russia and Turkey.
• Inflation moderated across most ECA countries due to lower global commodity prices, buoyant currencies, and structural factors, but it remains stubbornly high in places like Turkey where inflation has approached double digits.

Growth Projections

• Growth in 2024-25 is expected to remain weak at 2.6% per year, barely above pre-pandemic averages. This is due to persistent negative effects of Russia's war, slowing growth in the EU, and global financial conditions tightening.
• Türkiye saw growth revised upwards to 4.2% in 2023, while Russia's growth slowed from a peak as energy sanctions limited output potential. Other countries show more modest upgrades.

Economic Policies

• Central banks have shifted toward monetary tightening due to elevated inflation, raising policy rates (commissioned upgrade). In Russia, the Central Bank hiked interest rates to address currency depreciation and a shrinking current account surplus.
• Fiscal policy remains cautious to ensure debt sustainability; consolidation efforts have improved revenue collection, but current account adjustments could hamper economic stability. Some countries, particularly those reliant on imports and migration inflows, face pressure on external balances.

Risk Assessment

• The short-term outlook faces significant headwinds from global recessions, tighter financial conditions, deglobalization, climate change impacts, and protectorates extending the war in Ukraine. Climate change is an under-appreciated risk depressions output.

Poverty and Social Impacts

• Despite overall growth in many countries, poverty reduction slowed due to income erosion from high inflation, slowed wage growth in some nations, and ongoing geographic conflict. The most significant challenges persist in Ukraine and Syria where poverty rates remain extremely high.
• Fiscal support measures in Türkiye and USA largely had adverse distributional consequences.

Medium-Term Outlook

• Medium-term economic growth projections are below long-term average levels with the most significant constraints primarily driven by climate change constraints, green transition.
• The region revenues large capital-intensive economies remains below productivity growth rates Central Asia incomes
• More funding needed to climate change efforts are needed to improve data availability. Hemicentral Asia technical Deepening.

Climate Change Risks

Climate change poses substantial economic risks with increasing frequency and severity, disrupting agriculture and energy systems. Access to finance and cheap green credits remains a priority for several countries, including Central Asia and South Caucasus economies.

Overall Analysis

ECA's long-term growth potential is diminished by aging population challenges, slow productivity growth, and adaptation capacity to climate risks. At a time when debt-to-growth dynamics are vulnerable, the Inflation allows further fiscal space allocation and long-term poverty reduction vulnerable to widening and exacerbated by climate disasters.

These key points highlight the divergent national economies in ECA, the intersection of macroeconomic policy responses, and global constraints on sustainable growth, all unfolding in an extremely challenging high-risk environment.

Comparison of Major Economies' Growth Forecasts

1. Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Expected to average 2.6% annual growth in 2024-25.
2. Major Economies:
   • Russia: 1.3%
   • Türkiye: 3.1%
   • Georgia: 4.8%
   • The outlook remains mixed with significant divergences evident across Sub-Saharan Africa (South Caucasus expansion).