世界银行-东亚和太平洋地区经济充满不确定性（英文）-2018.10-184页-8mb

报告摘要

Summary of Navigating Uncertainty - World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2018

Core Content

The Navigating Uncertainty report, published by the World Bank in October 2018, provides an in-depth analysis of the economic developments and future outlook for the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region. It highlights the resilience of regional growth, the challenges posed by rising uncertainty, and the need for policy interventions to address both short-term and long-term economic issues.

Main Points

I.A. Recent Developments

Resilient Growth: Regional growth remained strong in the first half of 2018, despite increased risks.
Export Growth: Export growth peaked in early 2018 but slowed later in the year.
Domestic Demand: Robust domestic demand continued to support economic growth across the region.
Inflation: Inflation rates were rising, though generally remained below target levels.
Exchange Rates and Financial Markets: Heightened uncertainty affected exchange rates and financial markets, leading to increased volatility.
Fiscal Space: Fiscal space in many EAP economies is shrinking as governments adopt more accommodative fiscal policies.
Debt Distress: Pacific Island Countries (PICs) continue to face risks of debt distress, compounded by natural disaster vulnerabilities.
Poverty Reduction: Poverty rates have continued to decline across the EAP region.

I.B. Outlook and Risks

Moderate Growth: Economic growth is expected to moderate slightly but remain strong overall.
Domestic Demand as a Driver: Domestic demand is anticipated to continue driving growth despite a decline in net exports.
Poverty Decline: Continued growth is expected to support further reductions in poverty.
Protectionism: Escalating protectionism may negatively affect the growth outlook for developing EAP countries.
Financial Turbulence: Increased financial market turbulence complicates macroeconomic management.
Risk Interaction: The interaction of various risks could exacerbate short-term vulnerabilities and hinder growth prospects.
PICs Vulnerability: Among PICs, risks remain tilted to the downside, affecting long-term stability.

I.C. Policy Considerations

Mitigate Vulnerabilities: Policies should aim to reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance preparedness.
Strengthen Trade Frameworks: There is a need to strengthen and expand the global rules-based trade and investment framework, including through regional integration.
Structural Reforms: Deepening structural reforms is essential to support medium-term growth.
Economic Security and Mobility: Enhancing economic security and promoting mobility are key priorities.
Pacific Island Agenda: A specific agenda is recommended for PICs to address their unique challenges.

Key Information

Economic Performance

Regional growth in the EAP remained resilient in 2018.
Export growth peaked early and then eased, while domestic demand continued to be a strong growth driver.
Inflation rates were rising, though generally below target.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows were robust, supporting economic expansion.

Risks and Challenges

Global Uncertainty: Increased global uncertainty affected exchange rates, financial markets, and trade dynamics.
Protectionism: Escalating trade tensions and protectionism could negatively impact growth in developing EAP countries.
Debt Distress: PICs face an elevated risk of debt distress, despite increased revenues.
Structural Challenges: The Mekong Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) face challenges in job quality and inclusiveness, with labor costs rising faster than productivity.

Policy Recommendations

Enhance Fiscal and Monetary Policies: To manage fiscal space and maintain accommodative monetary policies.
Improve Education and Skills Development: To support intergenerational mobility and job quality improvements.
Promote Inclusive Growth: Through better labor policies and support for SMEs and startups.
Strengthen Regional Integration: To create a more resilient and competitive trade environment.

Medium-Term Development Agenda

Intergenerational Mobility: The report emphasizes the importance of intergenerational mobility for long-term social and economic development.
Education and Income Mobility: Education mobility is closely linked to income mobility in the EAP region.
Job Quality and Inclusiveness: Job quality is improving, but progress is slow. Inclusiveness remains a challenge, especially for women and in rural areas.
Global Value Chains (GVCs): GVC participation is a key factor in economic growth, but reliance on low-value-added components may hinder job quality improvements.

Country Summaries

The report includes country-specific summaries and key indicators for various nations in the EAP region, including:

Cambodia: Continued real GDP growth, with trends in rubber, rice prices, and remittances.
Central Pacific Islands: Domestic revenue sources and sovereign wealth fund balances.
China: Real GDP growth and poverty reduction progress.
Fiji: Real GDP growth and fiscal balance.
Indonesia: Real GDP growth and poverty trends.
Lao PDR: Real GDP growth and poverty estimates.
Malaysia: Real GDP growth and growth incidence curves.
Mongolia: Real GDP growth and poverty rates.
Myanmar: Real GDP growth and inflation trends.
North Pacific Islands: Employment trends and fiscal balance.
Papua New Guinea: Real GDP growth and fiscal indicators.
Philippines: Real GDP growth and poverty projections.
Solomon Islands: Trade balance and per capita GDP.
South Pacific Islands: Poverty incidence and public debt.
Thailand: GDP contributions and poverty rates.
Timor-Leste: Real growth and fiscal aggregates.
Vietnam: Real GDP growth and poverty estimates.

Figures and Tables

The report includes a variety of figures and tables that support the analysis, including:

Growth Trends: Real GDP growth, export performance, and domestic demand indicators.
Inflation and Exchange Rates: CPI inflation, exchange rate movements, and financial market volatility.
Fiscal Indicators: Public debt, fiscal deficits, and credit growth.
Education and Mobility: Intergenerational education persistence, mobility measures, and wage trends.
Trade and Investment: Global value chain participation, trade agreements, and the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Conclusion

The Navigating Uncertainty report outlines the current economic situation in the East Asia and Pacific region, emphasizing the need for balanced policies to address both short-term vulnerabilities and long-term development challenges. It underscores the importance of inclusive and high-quality job creation, structural reforms, and enhanced regional integration to ensure sustainable and equitable growth.

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