世界银行-不丹发展最新情况_2025年春季_连接未来——应对移民挑战和利用移民机遇（英）-2025_70页_29mb

Bhutan Development Update Summary: Spring 2025

Overview

The Bhutan Development Update examines recent economic developments and external migration trends. While the economy has shown robust growth driven by sectors like tourism and services, challenges include persistent youth unemployment, high inflation, and climate-related vulnerabilities. Migration to destinations like Australia is surging, fueled by better opportunities abroad, but this threatens brain drain. Policy recommendations focus on domestic reforms, migration management, and leveraging diaspora engagement to foster sustainable development.

Economic Performance

• Growth and Inflation: Real GDP grew by 4.9% in the 2023/24 fiscal year, supported by strong services growth. CPI inflation declined to 2.8%, but food inflation remained elevated, mirroring trends in India. Non-hydropower exports and tourism recovery contributed to growth.
• Employment and Poverty: Unemployment rates returned to pre-pandemic levels, but youth unemployment remains high at 17.7%. Poverty reduction is ongoing, though climate risks exacerbate economic vulnerabilities in rural areas.
• External Sector: The current account deficit narrowed to 22.1% of GDP due to reduced imports, higher remittances, and improved service exports. Remittances are crucial for foreign reserves amid low FDI.
• Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Fiscal deficits decreased significantly to 0.2% of GDP, but fiscal risks persist with rising debt. Monetary policy is accommodative, but the financial sector faces challenges from slower credit growth and high non-performing loans.

Migration Trends

• Drivers and Profile: Migration is concentrated among youth and skilled workers, with Australia being a primary destination. Higher earnings abroad and favorable visa regimes are key pull factors. Push factors include limited job opportunities, low wages, and dissatisfaction in Bhutan's labor market.
• Prospects and Challenges: Migrants and aspiring migrants express willingness to return if decent jobs are available, but their minimum income requirements exceed domestic wage levels. Climate change and brain drain pose medium-term risks.
• Policy Recommendations: Domestic reforms are needed to create better jobs and improve working conditions. Targeted interventions include education abroad, diaspora engagement, and enhancing migration cycles to maximize benefits.

Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth is projected to accelerate to 6.6% by 2025, driven by hydropower projects and mining. Fiscal deficits are expected to widen due to increased capital expenditure, and climate change risks could disrupt key sectors like hydropower and agriculture if unmitigated.

Policy Considerations

• Strengthen economic management, improve the business environment, support key sectors (e.g., agriculture, tourism), and enhance social security to retain talent and harness migration for national development.

This summary highlights Bhutan's progress against challenges, emphasizing the need for integrated policies to manage migration and foster inclusive growth.