世界银行-欧洲和中亚经济更新_移民与人才流失（英文）-2019.10-136页_14mb

Summary: Migration and Brain Drain in Europe and Central Asia

Core Content

This document, Migration and Brain Drain, is an Economic Update by the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist, published in Fall 2019. It provides an analysis of migration trends, their impacts, and policy responses in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), with a particular focus on the challenges of brain drain and the opportunities for labor mobility.

Main Points

1. Regional Economic Outlook

• Growth Projections: ECA growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2019 (down from 3.2% in 2018), the lowest in four years.
• Global Context: Global growth continued to soften in 2019, projected to decelerate to 2.5% due to weak trade and investment, and heightened policy uncertainty. It is expected to stabilize at 2.6% by 2021, assuming no major shocks.
• Downside Risks: Risks include a sharper slowdown in the euro area, global policy uncertainty, energy price fluctuations, and financial instability in EMDEs.

2. Migration Trends and Patterns

• Global Migration: Migrants make up about 2.5-3.5% of the world population, with immigration increasingly concentrated in a few regions.
• ECA Migration: Over 80% of ECA emigrants move within the region, indicating high intraregional mobility.
• Western Europe: One-third of global migrants now reside in Western Europe, showing a significant increase in recent decades.
• Demographic Impact: A shrinking working-age population in ECA is a long-term challenge, and migrants help alleviate this by increasing the labor force, productivity, and growth.

3. Brain Drain Concerns

• Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans: These regions are particularly affected by brain drain, as skilled workers migrate to higher-income countries.
• South Caucasus and Central Asia: These areas also face concerns about the loss of skilled labor, which can hinder development and innovation.

4. Policy Design and Migration Management

• Low-Skilled Migration: Policies should aim to meet the demand for low-skilled workers through training programs and adjustments in education systems.
• High-Skilled Migration: Creating clear pathways to residency or citizenship is key for destination countries to attract and retain skilled workers.
• Policy Tools: Innovative tools such as fee-based systems, visa auctions, and tax regimes can help finance migration adjustment and reduce hostility toward migrants.
• Retention Strategies: Origin countries can promote job creation, invest in higher education, and enhance opportunities for women to retain skilled labor.

5. Key Impacts of Migration

• Labor Market Effects: Migration can affect wages and employment in destination countries, as seen in the case of Czech workers in Germany.
• Refugee Inflows: Refugees have impacted labor markets in Europe and Central Asia, with notable effects on occupational choices and blue-collar employment.
• Human Trafficking: Analysis shows that human trafficking victims are often exploited in specific sectors, particularly in the former Soviet republics.
• Remittances: Countries like Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Ukraine rely heavily on remittances, which could decline if Russia's economic activity slows.

Key Information

Migration Statistics

• Immigrant-to-population ratio: Varies by country, with some ECA countries having high ratios.
• Emigrant-to-population ratio: Also varies, with Central and Eastern Europe showing significant emigration.
• Migration Corridors: The largest migration corridors in ECA include flows from Central Asia and Eastern Europe to Western Europe and the EU.

Policy Instruments

• MIPEX Index: Used to compare migration regimes across ECA countries.
• Visa Systems: Creating more flexible visa systems and markets for work permits can improve labor mobility.
• Relocation Assistance: Governments can offer support for workers changing occupations or sectors.

Economic Challenges

• Demographics: A shrinking working-age population poses long-term challenges.
• Governance: Improving governance and strengthening institutions are critical to addressing the root causes of brain drain.
• Private Investment: Enhancing the environment for private investment and innovation is necessary for sustainable development.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of migration in mitigating demographic challenges and boosting growth and poverty reduction in ECA. It emphasizes the need for effective policy design that balances the benefits and costs of migration, especially for both destination and origin countries. By improving labor mobility, addressing brain drain, and creating supportive policies, ECA countries can harness the potential of migration while reducing its negative impacts.