世界银行-《突尼斯经济监测》，2023年秋季：充满挑战的经济背景下的移民（英）-2023-50页_1mb

Summary of Tunisia Economic Monitor: Migration Amid a Challenging Economic Context (Fall 2023)

Recent Economic Developments

Tunisia's economy experienced a modest slowdown in 2023 due to a severe drought, uncertain financing conditions, and slow reforms. Real GDP growth of 1.2% in the first half of 2023 was hampered by a significant drop in agricultural production, particularly cereals, leading to shortages and increased public debt. Inflation, though slightly moderating from peak levels, remains high at around 9%, exacerbated by import restrictions and price controls. Budget pressures intensified with lower-than-projected tax revenues, but controlled wage bill growth helped balance the budget. External financing needs persisted despite a narrowed current account deficit, with heavy reliance on sovereign borrowing and limited access to private capital, compounding debt servicing challenges.

Migration Trends and Impact

Migration serves as a key coping strategy for Tunisia's economic challenges, with emigration rising due to unemployment and low incomes. Over 900,000 Tunisians reside abroad, contrasting sharply with the 60,000 foreigners in Tunisia, who make up only 0.5% of the population. Remittances are the largest foreign inflow, supporting households but facing volatility. Irregular migration to Europe surged since 2019, with Tunisia becoming a major transit hub, increasing risks for migrants. In-migration remains low, with immigrants often lacking regular status, limiting their economic contribution and exposing them to vulnerabilities.

Policy Recommendations

To harness migration's potential, Tunisia should expand bilateral mobility schemes, aligning skills with international demand to boost remittances and knowledge transfer. Facilitating regular migration pathways for seasonal workers can enhance economic integration. Domestic reforms, including fiscal consolidation, subsidy rationalization, and agricultural resilience, are crucial for sustainable growth and reducing out-migration pressures. Enhancing migrants' legal status and qualifications recognition will optimize their contributions and support development goals. 1818 H Street, NW
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