世界银行-2019年春季欧洲和中亚经济动态：金融包容性（英文）-2019.4-108页_10mb

Summary of "Financial Inclusion" - Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2019

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic outlook and financial inclusion trends in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region for the period 2018-2021. It highlights the challenges and opportunities for financial inclusion, emphasizing its role in promoting long-term growth, reducing poverty, and enhancing resilience to economic shocks.

Main Economic Outlook

Global Context

• Global Growth Slowdown: Global growth has moderated, with uncertainty rising due to trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.
• Trade and Manufacturing: Global goods trade and manufacturing activity have slowed, particularly in the euro area, where exports contracted to their lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis.
• Commodity Prices: Oil prices rose in early 2019 due to OPEC production cuts, but non-energy commodity prices declined in the second half of 2018.
• Inflation Trends: Global inflation increased during 2018, peaking at 2.5% YoY in October, then moderated.

ECA Region Growth

• Regional Growth: ECA region growth slowed to 3.1% in 2018 and is projected to decline to 2.1% in 2019.
• Turkey as a Drag: Turkey's financial stress significantly hindered regional growth.
• Recovery Outlook: Growth is expected to pick up modestly in 2020-2021 due to a gradual recovery in Turkey offsetting weakening activity in Central Europe.
• External Risks: Weakness in the euro area, trade disputes, and global policy uncertainty pose risks to the region's economic outlook.

Financial Inclusion in ECA

Account Ownership Trends

• Account Ownership: Account ownership in ECA countries varies widely, with some countries seeing significant growth since 2011.
• Developing Economies: In developing economies of ECA, account ownership increased from 45% to 65% between 2011 and 2017.
• Unbanked Population: Despite progress, over 30% of unbanked adults in ECA report lack of trust in banks as a barrier, double the developing country average.
• Gender Gaps: Gender gaps in account ownership are significant in some countries, such as Turkey, where the gap is close to 30 percentage points, three times the global average.

Digital Financial Inclusion

• Digital Payments: Use of digital payments is increasing in developing economies of ECA.
• Mobile Access: Over 80% of unbanked adults in ECA own a mobile phone, offering opportunities for digital financial inclusion.
• Digital Account Growth: The use of digitalized accounts is also rising, suggesting a shift toward more inclusive financial services.

Informal Financial Activities

• Informal Saving and Borrowing: Informal saving and borrowing remain prevalent in developing economies of ECA.
• Emergency Funds: In many developing economies, people rely on family and friends for emergency funds, indicating a need for formal financial systems.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhancing Inclusion: Policymakers can increase account ownership and use through various measures, such as improving access to financial services and enhancing trust in institutions.
• Learning from Others: Given the diversity of experiences, there are ample opportunities for ECA countries to learn from each other and improve financial inclusion.

Key Opportunities and Challenges

• Opportunities:
  • Digital technology offers potential to drive financial inclusion.
  • Redirecting public sector pension payments into formal accounts could reduce the unbanked population by up to 20 million.
• Challenges:
  • Persistent gender gaps and lack of trust in banks.
  • Slow growth and financial market stress in certain countries.
  • External risks such as trade disputes and policy uncertainty.

Future Directions

• Research Agenda: The report outlines a rich research and operational agenda for promoting financial inclusion in ECA.
• Policy Focus: Emphasis on inclusive financial sector development is recommended to support long-term growth and poverty reduction.
• Regional Cooperation: The report encourages regional cooperation and knowledge sharing to address common challenges in financial inclusion.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of financial inclusion in the context of global economic uncertainty and regional economic challenges. While progress has been made in account ownership, particularly in developing economies, significant gaps remain, especially in trust and gender disparity. Digital technologies and policy reforms offer promising avenues for improving financial inclusion and resilience in the region.