深度报告-2025-09-01-世界银行-移民_非洲未开发的潜力（英）页_120页_7mb

Migration: Africa’s Untapped Potential Summary

• Books in This Series

  • Migrants, Markets, and Mayors: Rising above the Employment Challenge in Africa’s Secondary Cities (ILO-ME/CDC, WDR)
  • Africa’s Resource Future, Low Carbon Transformation (RGC, Impact)
  • The Skills Balancing Act (RGC, OECD)
  • Electricity Access (WBG, ICL)
  • Safety Nets (RGC, JASS)
  • The Informal Sector in Francophone Africa (RGC, CDF)
  • Structural Transformation & Rural Change Revisited (RGC, TFT)
  • Light Manufacturing in Africa (RGC, Dinh & Palmade)
  • The Political Economy of Decentralization (RGC, Dafflon & Madiès)
  • Financing Africa’s Cities (RCB-HPL, ILO)
  • More titles available in the Africa Development Forum series.

• Key Themes

  • Migration plays a crucial role in shaping Africa’s social, economic, and cultural landscape.
  • African migration, while significant in volume, lacks access to the highest return opportunities, resulting in largely untapped economic potential.
  • Policies are needed to unleash this potential while safeguarding the dignity of all migrants and leveraging the economic power of refugees and internally displaced persons.

• African Migration

  • Less than 1 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population leaves the continent, contrasting with the global average of 1.7 percent.
  • Migration is dominated by internal movement within Africa (about 66 percent of movements).
  • Younger populations, higher education levels, and increasing female participation are diversifying migration flows.
  • North Africa attracts more remittances due to stronger diplomatic links and economic integration with Europe and the Gulf.
  • Irregular migration carries significant risks, with Africa recording the highest number of fatalities.
  • Africa hosts one-fourth of the world’s refugee population, most in countries facing fragility and conflict.

• Overlapping Megatrends

  • Africa’s population will grow from 1.5 billion in 2024 to over 2.5 billion by 2050.
  • A demographic youth bulge signals the potential “Great Demographic Divergence,” with Africa hosting nearly three out of four future youth.
  • Low productivity growth, slow job creation, and limited economic opportunities underutilize Africa’s demographic dividend.
  • Persistent fragility, conflict, and climate vulnerability exacerbate migration pressures and hinder economic development.

• Untapped Potential of Migration

  • Despite lower outmigration, African migration yields limited economic returns due to skill mismatches and inadequate migration pathways.
  • Countries in Africa’s geographical core receive the lowest remittances per emigrant, and high transaction costs limit the benefits.
  • Strategic management through bilateral labor agreements (BLMAs) and global skills partnerships (GSP) can enhance the benefits of migration.
  • The demographic divergence creates an unprecedented opportunity for Africa to partner with high-income countries, offering young workers for growing sectors like healthcare, education, and personal care.

• Harnessing Productive Potential

  • Strengthen migration systems by developing capacity, statistics, and regulatory frameworks at national and regional levels.
  • Promote better migration through targeted skill development, information flow, diaspora mobilization, and reduced migration costs.
  • Leverage the economic potential of refugees and IDPs through enhanced protection, integration, and regional freedom of movement.
  • Foster strategic partnerships between origin and destination countries to share benefits and manage migration flows efficiently and humanely.

• Fairness Note

  • While the book draws on the work of forward-looking scholars and practitioners, it reflects the GS issued in August 2023, which has been included. We note that feedback on this document is requested at [ODM email].