20260125-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_35页_3mb

报告摘要

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

Industry News
- Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber increased by 4.9% YoY in 2025, with total exports to China rising 24% YoY.
- Natural Rubber Exports:
  - Total exports: 2.669 million tonnes, a 5.3% YoY decrease.
  - Standard rubber exports: 1.478 million tonnes, a 16% YoY decrease.
  - Smoked sheet rubber exports: 438,000 tonnes, a 24% YoY increase.
  - Latex exports: 735,000 tonnes, an 8% YoY increase.
  - Exports to China:
    - Total natural rubber: 1.06 million tonnes, an 18% YoY increase.
    - Standard rubber: 627,000 tonnes, a 7% YoY decrease.
    - Smoked sheet rubber: 163,000 tonnes, a 208% YoY increase.
    - Latex: 266,000 tonnes, a 59% YoY increase.
- Mixture Rubber Exports:
  - Total exports: 1.753 million tonnes, a 25% YoY increase.
  - Exports to China: 1.745 million tonnes, a 28% YoY increase.
China's Outer Tire Output:
- December 2025 output: 106.563 million units, a 0.3% YoY increase.
- Full-year 2025 output: 1.207 billion units, a 0.9% YoY increase.
Global Light Vehicle Sales:
- Full-year 2025 sales: 91.9 million units, a 3.6% YoY increase.
- December 2025 sales: 8.39 million units, a 2.5% YoY decrease.
- Regional performance:
  - Western Europe: Growth, driven by Germany, Italy, and UK.
  - China: Decline, due to trade-in subsidy policy adjustments.
  - US: Decline, due to falling electric vehicle sales.

Market Trends

Futures Prices:
- Rubber futures (RU, NR, SICOM TSR20, TOCOM RSS3) showed a mixed trend, with RU leading the advance.
- Weekly changes:
  - RU 2605: 3.03%
  - NR 2605: 2.77%
  - SICOM TSR20 2605: 2.53%
  - TOCOM RSS3 2605: 1.00%
Basis & Calendar Spread:
- Basis: SCRWF – RU 05: -315.00 yuan/ton, a -34.04% decrease from previous week, 43.75% YoY increase.
- Calendar Spread: RU05 - 09: 95.00 yuan/ton, a 216.67% increase from previous week, 154.29% YoY increase.
Other Spreads:
- RU-NR: 3130.00 yuan/ton, 4.16% increase.
- NR-SGX TSR20: 143.24 yuan/ton, 72.97% increase.
- RU-JPX RSS3: 803.83 yuan/ton, 67.53% increase.
- RU-BR: 3340.00 yuan/ton, -15.97% decrease.
- Spot-Futures Spread: Widened due to futures prices rising more than spot prices.

Supply & Demand Data

Supply: Thailand Weather:
- Southern and northeastern rainy seasons have ended.
- Rolling 30-day average temperatures and precipitation data indicates ending of production season.
Supply: Raw Material Prices:
- Thai latex and cup lump prices: 52.61 THB/kg and 60.70 THB/kg respectively.
- Price spread between latex and cup lump narrowed.
- Upstream cost support diminished due to weak overseas demand.
Supply: Processing Profit:
- Thailand STR20: -447.00 yuan/ton, -43.73% change.
- Thailand RSS3: 1492.00 yuan/ton, 11.01% change.
- Thailand concentrated latex: 726.39 yuan/ton, 37.57% change.
- Processing profit margins for TSR fell, while those for RSS and concentrated latex rose.
Supply: Thailand's Exports:
- December exports: 446.79 10kT, a 18.69% YoY increase.
- Exports to China: 294.71 10kT, a 24.03% YoY increase.
Supply: Indonesia's Exports:
- December total exports: 125.03 10kT, a 0.56% YoY increase.
- Exports to China: 25.83 10kT, a 0.60% YoY increase.
Supply: Vietnam's Exports:
- November total exports: 184.88 10kT, a 0.47% YoY decrease.
- Exports to China: 153.83 10kT, a 4.64% YoY increase.
Supply: Cote d'Ivoire's Exports:
- December total exports: 173.27 10kT, a 2.08% YoY increase.
- Exports to China: 64.92 10kT, a 43.54% YoY increase.
Supply: China's Imports:
- December imports: 803,400 tonnes, a 24.84% MoM increase and 25.40% YoY increase.
- Imports from Thailand: 18.63 10kT (STR MIX), 6.01 10kT (STR).
- Imports from Vietnam: 12.79 10kT (SVR Mix), 0.45 10kT (SVR).
- Imports from Indonesia: 3.07 10kT (SIR MIX), 1.92 10kT (SIR).
- Imports from Cote d'Ivoire: 7.68 10kT (TSR), 64.92 10kT (Total).
Demand: Tire Capacity Utilization Rate & Inventory:
- TBR capacity utilization rate: 62.53%, -0.78% WoW, 54.82% YoY increase.
- PCR capacity utilization rate: 73.84%, 1.81% WoW, 13.74% YoY increase.
- TBR inventory: 46.80 Day, 1.52% WoW, -1.93% YoY.
- PCR inventory: 48.53 Day, 1.27% WoW, 11.49% YoY.
Demand: Tire Export & Vehicle Sales:
- TBR exports: 41.37 10kT, -1.15% MoM, 8.40% YoY.
- PCR exports: 25.17 10kT, 6.14% MoM, -7.79% YoY.
- Passenger car sales: 10.27 10k Units, -9.31% MoM, 21.98% YoY.
- Heavy-duty truck sales: 284.73 10k Units, -6.26% MoM, -8.74% YoY.
Demand: Highway Turnover Volume:
- Highway cargo turnover: 6905.57 100 million ton-kilometers, -3.02% MoM, 0.78% YoY.
- Highway passenger turnover: 401.00 100 million passenger-kilometers, -4.75% MoM, -1.47% YoY.
Rubber Inventory:
- China's natural rubber inventory accumulated, with dark colored rubber showing the largest increase.
- Inbound volumes at Qingdao Port: 13% increase week-on-week, consistently higher than outbound volumes.
- Vietnamese rubber: continued inventory build-up trend.

Key Information

Thailand remains a key player in natural rubber and mixture rubber exports, with notable increases in exports to China.
China's tire industry showed modest growth in outer tire output, but faced challenges in passenger vehicle sales due to policy adjustments.
Global light vehicle sales increased by 3.6% YoY, but declined in December due to regional factors.
Futures prices in both domestic and overseas markets showed a mixed trend, with RU leading the advance.
Spot-futures spreads widened due to futures outperforming spot prices.
Thailand's supply is influenced by weather conditions and raw material prices.
China's demand is supported by increased imports, particularly from Thailand and Vietnam.
Inventory levels in China increased, with dark colored rubber showing the most significant growth.