20250601-国泰期货-GTJA_Futures·Energy_Chemical_Industry_Weekly__Natural_Rubber_28页_2mb

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the natural rubber market, focusing on industry news, market trends, supply and demand data, and trading advice for the week ending 2025/6/1.

Main Industry News

• Vietnam's Natural Rubber Exports Decline: Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first four months of 2025 decreased by 5.9% YoY to 168,000 tons, with significant declines in TSR (TSR10 down 49%, SVR3L down 3%, SVR CV60 down 26%). Mixed rubber exports increased by 4.4% YoY to 282,000 tons, with SVR3L mixed rubber up 33%.
• EU Electric Vehicle Growth: EU passenger car sales rose by 1.3% in April 2025 to 925,359 units, with fully electric vehicles capturing 15.3% of the market, hybrid vehicles 35.3%, and gasoline/diesel vehicles 38.2%.
• Thailand-China Consultative Meeting: Thailand and China held a meeting to discuss reducing natural rubber import tariffs and promoting the rubber economy, proposing the establishment of a "Thailand-China-Xishuangbanna Rubber Joint Task Force" and improving the "Mekong Transportation System".

Market Trends

Futures Prices

• SHFE RU2509 closed at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 7.77% from the previous week.
• SICOM TSR20 closed at 159.60 US cents/kg, down 6.01%.
• TOCOM RSS3 closed at 300 JPY/kg, down 6.25%.
• The domestic market experienced a larger price drop compared to the international market.

Basis & Calendar Spread

• SCRWF - RU was -55.00 yuan/ton, up 35.29% from the previous week, with a 93.29% YoY increase.
• RU09 - RU01 was -795.00 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous week, with a 34.02% YoY increase.

Other Spreads

• RU09-NR09: 1,860.00 yuan/ton, down 9.93% from the previous week.
• RU09-BR09: 2,485.00 yuan/ton, down 15.91%.
• NR09-TSR20 09: 78.06 yuan/ton, down 69.76%.
• RU09-JPX RSS3 09: -1,586.01 yuan/ton, down 1.09%.
• Spot - Future Spreads: The price drop in the import rubber market led to arbitrage trades being sold off, with STR MIX-RU at 45.00 yuan/ton up 139.13% and SMR MIX-RU at -25.00 yuan/ton up 86.49%.

Substitutes Prices

• BR (顺丁橡胶): 11,500 yuan/ton, down 4.56% from the previous week.
• SBR (丁苯橡胶): 11,950 yuan/ton, down 4.40%.
• The price differential between synthetic rubber and natural rubber narrowed.

Supply & Demand Data

Supply

• Thailand Weather: The southern region had normal temperatures, while the northeast saw higher-than-usual rainfall, affecting production.
• Raw Material Prices:
  • Thai Cup Lump: 49.50 THB/kg, down 8.25% from the previous week.
  • Thai Latex: 61.25 THB/kg, down 2.39%.
  • Thai RSS3: 67.93 THB/kg, down 1.54%.
  • Hainan Latex: 12,900 yuan/ton, down 4.44%.
  • Yunnan Latex: 12,700 yuan/ton, down 9.29%.
• Price Spreads:
  • Thai Latex – Cup Lump: 11.75 THB/kg, up 33.52%.
  • Hainan Concentrated Latex – SCRWF Plants: 1,000 yuan/ton, up 25.00%.

Demand

• Tire Capacity Utilization:
  • PCR: 72.51%, down 1.67% from the previous week and 9.46% YoY.
  • TBR: 60.80%, down 2.08% from the previous week and 6.75% YoY.
• Tire Inventory:
  • PCR: 46.22 days, down 1.66%.
  • TBR: 41.96 days, down 2.10%.
• Tire Exports:
  • TBR: 41.02 thousand tons, down 5.43% MoM and up 10.11% YoY.
  • PCR: 25.76 thousand tons, down 10.39% MoM and down 0.58% YoY.
• Vehicle Sales:
  • Passenger Cars: 222.26 thousand units, down 9.95% MoM and up 11.05% YoY.
  • Heavy-duty Trucks: 8.77 thousand units, down 21.36% MoM and up 6.52% YoY.

Inventory

• Natural Rubber Inventory:
  • Dark-colored Rubber: 790,000 tons, down 3.4%.
  • Light-colored Rubber: 518,000 tons, down 1.2%.
  • China NR Spot Inventory: 1.308 million tons, down 2.5%.
• SHFE Rubber Inventory:
  • On Warrant (RU): 19.87 thousand tons, down 0.41%.
  • Deliverable (RU): 21.17 thousand tons, up 3.02%.
• INE Rubber Inventory:
  • On Warrant (NR): 1.76 thousand tons, down 59.49%.
  • Deliverable (NR): 2.75 thousand tons, down 44.40%.

Trading Advice

• RU/NR: The market is currently in an accelerating downward trend, with no positive drivers in the short term.
• Supply & Demand: The supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, which weakens the price support.
• Qingdao Inventory:
  • Total Natural Rubber Inventory: 614,600 tons, up 0.06%.
  • Bonded Zone Inventory: 90,500 tons, down 1.74%.
  • General Trade Inventory: 524,100 tons, up 0.38%.
• Market Atmosphere: The domestic natural rubber market saw a sharp price drop, with futures prices falling significantly and the spot market following the downtrend. Downstream demand remained cautious, with only minimal purchases at lower prices.

Key Information

• Vietnam's export data shows a 5.9% YoY decline in natural rubber and mixed rubber.
• EU car sales rose slightly, but electric vehicle market share remains below expectations.
• Thailand and China are working on tariff reduction and trade facilitation.
• Futures prices for both RU and NR declined, with RU seeing a larger drop.
• Inventory levels are declining, particularly in bonded zones.
• Tire production and exports are seasonally declining, but year-on-year performance remains positive.
• Market sentiment is weak, with arbitrage activity and trading volume decreasing.