20260201-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_35页_3mb

GTJA Futures·Energy&Chemical Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the natural rubber market, including industry news, market trends, supply and demand data, and key price indicators. It covers developments in major producing and consuming regions, such as Thailand, China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, and analyzes the impact of weather conditions, export data, and commodity price movements on the market.

Main Points

Industry News

1. EU Passenger Car Sales Rose 1.8% to 10.82 Million Units in 2025

   • EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year-on-year in December 2025 to 963,319 units.
   • In 2025, total sales reached approximately 10.6 million units, up 0.8% year-on-year.
   • Pure electric vehicles (EVs) market share rose to 17.4%, up from 13.6% in 2024.
   • Hybrid vehicles accounted for 34.5% of the market, with plug-in hybrids gaining traction.
   • Petrol and diesel vehicles' combined market share dropped to 35.5% from 45.2% in 2024.

2. China's Outer Tire Output Up 0.9% YoY in 2025

   • China's rubber tire outer tire output reached 106.563 million units in December 2025, up 0.3% month-on-month.
   • Annual output increased by 0.9% to 1.207366 billion units.

3. Thailand's Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Exports Up 4.9% YoY in 2025

   • Thailand's total natural rubber exports (excluding composite rubber) reached 2.669 million tonnes, a 5.3% YoY decrease.
   • Standard rubber exports fell 16% YoY to 1.478 million tonnes.
   • Smoked sheet rubber increased 24% YoY to 438,000 tonnes.
   • Latex exports rose 8% YoY to 735,000 tonnes.
   • Total exports to China increased by 18% YoY for natural rubber and 28% YoY for mixture rubber.

4. Myanmar's Rubber Exports Exceeded 200,000 Tonnes in First 9 Months of 2025-2026

   • Myanmar exported over 200,000 tonnes of rubber in the first nine months of the fiscal year.
   • China accounts for 75% to 80% of Myanmar's rubber exports.
   • Total rubber planting area in Myanmar exceeds 1.6 million acres, with Mon State being the main production region.

Market Trends

• Futures Prices

  • Rubber futures showed divergent movements, with RU, NR, and SGX TSR20 rising while JPX RSS3 declined.
  • RU 2605 closed at 16,360 yuan/ton, up 0.28% from the previous week.
  • NR 2605 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton, up 1.14%.
  • SGX TSR20 2605 closed at 189.60 US cents/kg, up 1.66%.
  • JPX RSS3 2605 closed at 330.20 JPY/kg, down 6.35%.

• Basis & Calendar Spread

  • The basis (SCRWF – RU 05) was -210.00 yuan/ton, up 33.33% from the previous week.
  • Calendar spread (RU05 - RU09) was 135.00 yuan/ton, up 42.11%.
  • YoY changes: Basis up 67.69%, Calendar spread up 190.00%.

• Other Spreads

  • Price spreads of RU-NR, RU-BR, and NR-SGX TSR20 narrowed.
  • RU-JPX RSS3 spread widened.
  • YoY changes: RU-NR up 10.20%, RU-BR down 4.12%, NR-TSR20 down 70.15%, RU-JPX RSS3 up 375.13%.

• Spot - Future Spreads

  • Spot prices for imported rubber rose, but futures pulled back on Friday due to macro factors.
  • Spot market quotes adjusted lower, and market inquiries turned quiet.
  • Spreads for STR MIX-RU 05, SMR MIX-RU 05, SVR3L-RU 05, and Africa 10#-RU 05 were -1,130 yuan/ton, -1,180 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton, and -3,225.70 yuan/ton respectively.
  • YoY changes: STR MIX down 41.25%, SMR MIX down 35.63%, SVR3L up 193.33%, Africa 10# up 3.00%.

• Light and Dark Colored Rubber Spreads

  • The spread between SCRWF and Thai mixture rubber widened.
  • The spread between 3L and Thai mixture rubber also widened.
  • YoY changes: SCRWF-STR Mix up 513.33%, 3L-STR Mix up 95.38%.

• Substitutes: BR & SBR

  • Both BR and SBR prices surged sharply this week, driven by tight overseas butadiene supply and rising prices.
  • BR ex-factory prices reached 12,950 yuan/ton, up 1.97% from the previous week.
  • SBR prices reached 13,300 yuan/ton, up 3.91%.
  • YoY changes: BR down 13.38%, SBR down 14.47%.

• Open Interests & Warehouse Receipts

  • Open interests for RU and NR were 20.21 and 19.74 respectively, with a slight decline from the previous week.
  • Bilateral margin for RU and NR were 65.93 and 25.34 yuan/ton, both down YoY.
  • YoY changes: RU up 92.75%, NR down 27.65%.

Supply & Demand Data

• Thailand Weather

  • The rainy season in southern and northeastern Thailand has ended.
  • Rolling 30-day average temperatures and precipitation levels are provided, weighted by production volume.

• China Weather

  • The rainy season in Hainan and Yunnan production areas has ended.

• Raw Material Prices

  • Rubber tapping in Thailand and Vietnam is drawing to a close, leading to a seasonal contraction in supply and a strong uptrend in raw material prices.
  • Thai Cup Lump price was 53.20 THB/kg, down 12.28% YoY.
  • Thai Latex price was 58.80 THB/kg, down 11.58% YoY.
  • Thai RSS3 price was 60.90 THB/kg, down 17.13% YoY.
  • Thai USS price was 57.40 THB/kg, down 20.12% YoY.
  • Hainan Latex price was 13,100 yuan/ton, up 14.20% YoY.
  • Yunnan Latex price was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 14.20% YoY.

• Price Spreads between Raw Materials

  • Thai latex and cup lump spread widened.
  • YoY changes: Thai latex-cup lump spread up 300.00%, Hainan concentrated latex-SCRWF spread down 57.89%, Yunnan concentrated latex-SCRWF spread down 35.63%.

• Processing Profit

  • Thailand's rubber processing margins recovered.
  • STR20 processing profit was -397.00 yuan/ton, up 11.19% from the previous week.
  • RSS3 processing profit was 1,502.00 yuan/ton, up 0.67%.
  • YoY changes: STR20 down 2.85%, RSS3 down 54.30%.

• Delivery Profit

  • Delivery profit for SCRWF and other rubber types showed a decline.
  • YoY changes: SCRWF delivery profit down 184.50% and 212.67% respectively.

• Thailand's Exports

  • Natural rubber exports increased in December, with all varieties showing growth.
  • TSR exports saw a relatively substantial increase.
  • YoY changes: Total exports up 10.31%, with significant growth in certain categories.

• Vietnam's Exports

  • Natural rubber exports edged up in November, with mixture rubber exports showing a notable increase.
  • Exports to China increased, but standard rubber shipments to the country declined.
  • YoY changes: Total exports down 19.13%, with some categories showing significant declines.

• Côte d'Ivoire's Exports

  • Rubber exports increased in December, with a notable rise in exports to China.
  • YoY changes: Total exports up 11.70%, with exports to China up 43.54%.

• China's Imports

  • Natural rubber imports in December reached 803,400 tonnes, up 24.84% month-on-month and 25.40% year-on-year.
  • Imports from Thailand and Vietnam showed significant increases, while Indonesian standard rubber imports declined.
  • YoY changes: Total imports up 25.40%, with varying trends across categories.

Demand Trends

• Tire Capacity Utilization Rate & Inventory

  • Some PCR sample enterprises saw a slight increase in capacity utilization rates due to export orders.
  • TBR shipments were lackluster, with production control at some enterprises.
  • TBR inventories edged down, while PCR inventory build-up continued.
  • YoY changes: TBR capacity utilization rate up 442.75%, PCR up 413.97%.

• Tire Export & Vehicle Sales

  • TBR exports edged down month-on-month.
  • PCR exports continued to recover.
  • Passenger vehicle sales declined both year-on-year and month-on-month.
  • Heavy-duty truck sales also fell month-on-month.
  • YoY changes: TBR up 8.40%, PCR down 7.79%, passenger cars up 21.98%, heavy-duty trucks down 8.74%.

• Highway Turnover Volume

  • Highway freight and passenger turnover volumes decreased in December.
  • YoY changes: Both categories showed a decline in volume.