20240705-国盛证券-宇通客车-600066.SH-6月销量环比高增_出口保持旺盛趋势_3页_662kb

报告总结：宇通客车 6 月销量环比高增，出口保持旺盛趋势

核心要点：

1. 产销数据亮眼： 宇通客车发布 2024 年 6 月产销快报，实现客车销量 4,743 辆，同比增长持平，环比大幅增长 36%；产量 4,257 辆，同比增长 4%，环比增长 16%。这表明 6 月销量同比增长持平，但环比提升了 36%。
2. 销量结构优化： 公司 6 月销量增长主要得益于出口市场的旺盛需求和产品结构的持续优化。中、大、轻型客车分别实现销量 2,728/1,433/582 辆，同比变化为 +10%/-18%/+17%。特别地，中大客车整体销量达到 4,161 辆，虽然同比仅微降 2%，但环比增长了 35%。这显示结构调整有效，可能支撑了整体增长。
3. 行业格局洞察： 国内汽车产业政策与市场需求回暖叠加，出口高增长和产品结构调整共同驱动公司盈利能力改善，并带动整个客车行业格局向好。内需修复与出口高盈利相辅相成，推动行业从内需驱动转向兼具出口与内需增长的成长阶段。
4. 海外订单稳定，新能源出口领先： 公司 1-5 月累计出口 4,921 辆客车，同比增长 64%，新能源客车出口达 941 辆，同比大幅增长 96%。已实现智利、希腊、西班牙等地的大批量订单交付，特别是纯电公交等订单刷新记录，有效提升了公司的出口份额和结构。
5. 盈利预期与估值： 公司预计未来几年经营状况将持续改善，2024-2026 年净利润增长率分别为 139%、47%、92%，盈利能力有望显著提升。基于当前估值模型，公司 2024 年市值对应的 PE 约为 17 倍，未来 PE 稳步下降至 14 倍和 12 倍，并维持“买入”评级。
6. 风险提示： 包括客车行业需求不及预期、原材料价格波动、汇率及海运费用变化等不确定因素。

总结： 报告显示，宇通客车在 2024 年 6 月销量环比增长 36%，得益于出口市场表现强劲和产品结构优化。公司通过在海外市场完成大批量新能源订单交付，并在国内市场享受政策及需求回暖的双重利好，整体盈利水平有望环比持续改善。预计 2024 年至 2026 年净利润将持续高增长，维持“买入”评级，但需警惕外部风险因素的影响。

Please carefully read the financial report | Company Insight

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Analysis Highlights

1. Main Points:

   • Passenger Vehicle Market Overview & Forecast: The Chinese passenger vehicle market is experiencing a deep recovery. Despite year-on-year growth in total passenger vehicle sales in June (from -7.06% in May to +4.2% in June 2024), Haval (Haral) is unlikely to achieve significant year-on-year growth in passenger car sales. The key is the stabilization of the sales structure and markets. However, overall demand and sales ability are constrained. New energy vehicles continue to grow and may see higher penetration than in 2013, offering some relief. The post-pandemic transformation in the Chinese auto market includes supply chain improvements and demand upgrades. Against this backdrop, forecasts for 2024 vary: higher estimates suggest year-end sales over 30 million units (similar to 2009), while lower estimates project around 28 million units. The market is expected to experience fluctuations but show positive recovery momentum.
   • Suggestion: Foster competition among integrators (4S stores), stabilize supply chains/retail channels, promote the DIY trend and customization of vehicle interiors/equipment, address concerns about battery safety/blocked development lanes, and rationalize the caliber and marketing claims.

2. Stock Performance:

   • Financial Ratios: On page 13, the comparison of the growth proportion of the automotive sector is slightly inaccurate. Although the added value of the automotive industry slightly declined in June, it is expected to rebound as seasonality normalizes. July investment estimates are slightly optimistic but also need further confirmation; May investment-friendly policies have taken effect.

Meeting Summary Recap

The meeting covered two recently acquired companies by Haral CHN: Luan Tao's Vinchin Keda and a gold investment project.

• Potential Promise Points:

  • Vinchin Keda: Discusses its potential gain in the AI chip field.
  • Gold Coin Market: Estimates market size to be around 3 trillion RMB and suggests growth trajectories in the first half (H1). Outlines four major competitive advantages (clear small shares, improved customer service/management, enhancing products/luxurious feels, partnership strategy) and intends to stabilize its development path.

• Summary: Haral is integrating Vinchin Keda and the gold market into its ecosystem.

Disclaimer

Haral focuses on industrial investment, with investment stages ranging from seed to post-IPO exits, primarily through partnerships and supporting their development. Invest/Huapin mainly invests in chip-related fields. A recent article mentioned Li Luo, which may affect market sentiment.

国盛证券：聚焦科创板与新蓝筹，把握周期上行与盈利改善机会

核心分析目标：

1. 周期板块上行趋势未改，盈利修复是核心驱动： 尽管美联储维持高利率且增长不及预期，但预计 2024 年全球经济仍将保持温和复苏态势。中国在稳增长政策推动下，上半年内需（地产链、消费、制造业）逐步企稳。高炉开工率、工业硅产量的边际改善，水泥玻璃等主要建筑材料价格上涨，以及 PPI 连四月超预期延续，均指向国内总需求企稳改善。出口在价格提升、剔除锂电后保持稳定增长，结构优化带来的增长贡献显著增加。
2. 板块内部分化与新蓝筹崛起： 制造业板块整体 PE 约 24，低于历史估值分位数，具备阶段性做多信心。年内涨幅分化明显，上游资源品（磷化工、钢铁、锂资源）及高分红高股息板块如半导体设备（北方华创、拓荆）表现突出，估值修复力度大。未来具备业绩弹性的焦点将转向高毛利、净利修复空间大的公司。需警惕行业过剩导致的需求边际放缓。
3. 把握三大投资方向：
   • 周期类： 焦煤（供需平衡支撑），磷化工（供需改善）
   • 科技相关： 华夏曙光汽车+上贝等半导体设备
   • 综合能力突出： 招商港口、上港集团等综合标的。