20240623-中泰期货-油脂油料周报_美豆缺乏有效天气驱动_国内豆粕供给压力凸显_51页_2mb

An Analysis and Summary of the CFTD Edible Oil and Oilseed Weekly Report (June 23, 2024)

Market Overview:

CFTD highlights an increasingly evident supply pressure in domestic soybean meal given "the lack of effective weather" in the US soybean production, lackluster consumption, and heavy supply expected from imported soybeans.

Key Points by Commodity:

1. Soybean Meal:

   • Despite a slight support from the forecasted heat and drought in certain areas of the US midwest, the market remains driven by concerns about record soybean imports and cumulative stockpiling from high crushing rates. Brazil-related factors are adding pressure. Weak buying interest in Chinese ports further exacerbates the bearish trend.

2. Vegetable Oils:

   • Palm oil faces a dilemma between export data (ambiguous due to conflicting assessments) and rising inventories. Its performance is contrasted with soybean oil, which benefits from tightening supply and lower cumulative growth. Rapeseed oil is described as weak and under supply pressure.

3. Peanut Market:

   • The market saw prices soften due to rising storage costs and weak buying, but a partial rebound occurred in the weekend amid lingering inventories and views for lower planting area this year. Prices remain capped due to a "shoulder season" demand.

Supply & Demand Elements:

• Exports from the US, South America, and Malaysia feature prominently.
• Import volumes for soybeans and soybean meal are mounting, with concerns about inventories and market congestion. Low usage indicators and falling consumption add complexity.

Risk Factors:

• Weather alerts: U.S., South America, Canada & Australia, and domestic forecasts (e.g., heavy rains, high temperatures) are overdue and essential to track.
• Macro impacts: Global issues continue to disturb the market, along with inventory and import volumes.

Forward Look:

• Expectations are held for the return of "weather-driven" sentiment due to the US harvest-gap trade and summer planting for the new crop, but for now, price action is limited by import surpluses, sluggish consumption, and macro scares.

中泰期货油脂油料周报2024年6月23日速览

弱天气驱动力致国内豆粕供应压力显著

核心观点：

• 豆粕市场：美国中西部局部高温及干旱小幅提振美豆价格，但整体缺乏有效的天气主题；短期焦点在6月末种植面积报告。国内连盘豆粕延续破位下行。高开机率导致豆粕库存攀升，进口大豆仍旺盛，市场对7-8月到港量预期庞大，累库将持续压制价格。
• 油脂市场：原油反弹支撑整体油脂；马棕出口数据及产量变化扰动盘面；国内棕榈油降库缓慢，豆油累库节奏放缓，油厂挺油意愿强，油脂表现偏强；菜油受进口菜籽大量供应压制表现疲软。

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