20231116-交银国际证券-小鹏汽车-W-09868.HK-收入和毛利率低于预期_毛利率改善不确定性仍大_维持沽出_6页_358kb

报告摘要

Q3 2023 Results: Total revenue reached 85.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, representing a 68.5% year-over-month increase, but slightly below market and research expectations. Vehicle deliveries totaled 40,000 units, up 72.4% from the previous quarter. Gross margin was -27% for the quarter, improving by 12 percentage points compared to Q2, primarily due to factors such as inventory write-downs on G3i models and promotional activities, although cost control measures were better than anticipated. Net loss for the quarter was 38.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, including specific items like derivatives losses.
4Q 2023 Forecast: The company expects deliveries between 59,500 and 63,500 vehicles, indicating a 48.7-58.7% increase year-over-month, driven by the introduction of models like G6 and new P5 versions, which should positively impact margins.

Maintain "Sell" rating for 2024, with target price moderately increased to 397 Hong Kong dollars, reflecting a slight upward adjustment but still below current levels. Revenue projections for 2024 are maintained, but the gross margin expectation is lowered to 12% to account for anticipated heightened competition.

The outlook for 2024 includes risks from intensified market competition, potentially aggressive pricing on new models like the MPVX9, which may challenge brands such as Tesla, BYD, and NIO in price-sensitive segments. Additionally, collaborations with Huawei on intelligent automotive solutions have led to a dilution of Xpeng's smart driving branding, which could negatively affect marketing efforts and customer perception in the short term.

Revenue for 2024 is projected at 42 billion Hong Kong dollars (up 27% YoY), with a gross margin of 12%. Valuation metrics show a 19x price-to-sales ratio for 2024, considered elevated compared to peer averages.

The report underscores necessary reading of disclosures from analysts, business relationships, and disclaimers. Analysts reaffirmed no direct financial interests or conflicts, and the report contains standard legal warnings on data reliability and investment risks.

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