20231024-大越期货-沥青期货早报_33页_1mb

Asphalt Futures Market Summary

Date: 2023-10-24

• Overall Outlook: Short-term bearish due to supply-demand imbalance, but some support from profitability gaps and low inventory. Key risks include crude oil price volatility and seasonal demand slowdown.
• Supply Factors: High production utilization rate (377%) and expected increased output in October add to supply pressure. Inventory levels remain low, supporting prices slightly. Imports and transmigration affect availability.
• Demand Factors: Demand is weak overall, with regional variations (stronger south, supported north by construction). Consumption trends show seasonal decline, limiting demand upside.
• Price Analysis: Spot prices show convenience premium (e.g., 3825 yuan/ton in Shandong), while futures are below key moving averages. Low inventory pressures ease, but overall sentiment is cautious.
• Position Analysis: Market sees net long positions increasing, indicating potential profit-taking in upward trends.
• Key Risks: October weather forecasts and crude oil price movements could influence supply and demand dynamics.

Summary Highlights:

• Supply: Elevated utilization and output rates sustain bearish sentiment.
• Demand: Weak consumption trends, with omni-directional declines impacting prices.
• Support: Baseline profitability gaps with alternative fuels provide limited upside.
• Inventory: Low stock levels mitigate downward pressure but don't offset supply-demand tightness.
• Outlook: Mild bearish signals persist, pending external factors like crude oil and weather.