20251130-国泰期货-GTJA_Futures·Energy_Chemical_Industry_Weekly_Natural_Rubber_35页_3mb

GTJA Futures · Energy & Chemical Industry Weekly

Natural Rubber Market Analysis
Date: 2025/11/30 | Analyst: GAO Linlin

Key Points

🌍 Supply & Demand Updates

1. Regulatory News:

   • EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) delayed by 12 months (approval rate 61.95%).
   • 2026/2027 phased implementation timelines for EU operators.

2. Production:

   • Thai floods affected ~13 million rubber-producing acres, with ~20kt rubber loss.
   • Southern Thailand rubber output likely to decline due to rainfall disruptions.

3. Trade:

   • Vietnam total NR/mixture exports in 1–10月 YoY↓3.5%, but China imports rose significantly.
   • Indonesia and Ivory Coast exports remained strong YoY.

4. China Imports (10月数据):

   • Total imports 510,800 tons, MoM↓14% YoY↓0.89%.
   • STR imports declined sharply; TSR/Côte d’Ivoire exports surged.

💹 Price & Spread Dynamics

1. Futures:

   • SHFE RU主力合约报15410元/吨，小幅上行；INE NR主力价高位整理。
     -基差数据：（需查询图表 - 价格差波动）

2. Cross-Commodity Spreads:

   • RU-NR spread widened ~60元/吨；深色胶库存累库，浅色胶下降。
     -替代胶价格（BR/SBR）弱势运行。

📈 Market Outlook

1. Supply Forecast:

   • Floods easing; seasonal production peak may marginally oversupply later this year.
   • Natural rubber inventory at 1.08Mt, up 1.7% week-on-week.

2. Demand Trend:
   -Tire capacity utilization rates 54.5%–62.75%, inventories increasing.
   -Vehicle sales & highway freight unchanged; speculative short-covering weak.

3. Operational Risks:
   -Macro fluctuations tighten rubber’s bearish bias; technical squeeze in RU.

4. Strategy:

• 观望 or 偏空(USD): Price rally may trigger short-cover near-term.
• 反套策略: 若库存累积预期升温，RU01-O05 不建议反套。

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