2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_Implications_of_the_Trans_14页_308kb

Summary of the Policy Brief: Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for the World Trading System

Core Content

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signed in February 2016 between the United States and 11 Asia-Pacific countries, is the most comprehensive trade agreement ever negotiated between developed and developing nations. It accounts for over 37% of global GDP and 24% of global merchandise trade, making it a significant player in the world trading system. The agreement includes innovative rules on digital trade, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and environmental policies, and is seen as a catalyst for economic reform and competitive liberalization in the region.

Main Points

1. Impact on the World Trading System

• The TPP could set a new standard for free trade agreements (FTAs), influencing future multilateral trade negotiations within the World Trade Organization (WTO).
• It may revitalize plurilateral negotiations and lay the groundwork for future WTO talks by demonstrating the feasibility of high-standard trade rules.
• However, WTO initiatives have largely stalled, with the Trade Facilitation Agreement being the only major success so far.

2. Strategic and Economic Implications for Regional Integration

• The TPP is complementary to other regional trade initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the China-Japan-Korea (CJK) trilateral talks.
• It increases the stakes for non-participating countries to advance their own trade agreements to remain competitive.
• The TPP's high standards could push countries to adopt more liberal trade policies, potentially leading to a broader Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP).

3. TPP and Regional Trade Initiatives

• The CJK trilateral aims to deepen economic integration in Northeast Asia, but has faced political and economic challenges.
• The RCEP is a broader initiative involving ASEAN and its FTA partners, with RCEP as a percent of global GDP at 31% and global merchandise trade at 28%.
• The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) may be affected by the TPP's rules of origin, which could discourage sourcing from non-TPP countries.
• The Pacific Alliance (PA), a Latin American trade bloc, may also face fissures due to the exclusion of Colombia, but its expansion is likely to include TPP members.

4. TPP's Influence on Future Trade Agreements

• The TPP's rulemaking on digital trade, SOEs, and labor standards could inform future WTO negotiations.
• China's interest in the TPP is growing, but its decision to join remains uncertain due to domestic reform requirements.
• If China joins, it could enhance the TPP's prospects for becoming the FTAAP.

5. Challenges for Non-TPP Members

• Non-TPP countries, including China, India, and Korea, are concerned about trade and investment diversion.
• These countries are also considering accession to the TPP to avoid being left behind in regional integration.
• The three poorest ASEAN members (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar) may struggle to meet the TPP's high standards without special treatment or de minimis exceptions.

Key Information

• TPP-12 Economic Indicators (Table 1):

  • Total GDP: $27,388 billion (37% of global GDP)
  • Total population: 817 million
  • Total merchandise trade: $9,575 billion (43% of global trade)
  • The United States is the largest contributor to TPP GDP and trade.

• RCEP Economic Indicators (Table 2):

  • Total GDP: $22,406 billion (31% of global GDP)
  • Total population: 3,519 million
  • Total merchandise trade: $10,641 billion (43% of global trade)
  • RCEP includes 10 ASEAN members and 6 FTA partners, with China being a key player.

• TPP's Potential to Expand

  • The TPP is open to new members, and several countries, including Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, have expressed interest in joining.
  • The TPP could evolve into a TPP-16 if more countries join, integrating a majority of the RCEP members.

• Political and Economic Dynamics

  • The TPP's ratification in the U.S. faces political resistance, but its economic benefits are seen as compelling.
  • Japan joined the TPP in 2013 to push for domestic reforms and improve competitiveness.
  • Korea is likely to be the first non-TPP country to seek accession, driven by the desire to avoid trade diversion and enhance economic reforms.

Conclusion

The TPP has the potential to redefine the world trading system by setting new standards for trade and investment, promoting economic reforms, and encouraging competitive liberalization. While its ratification is uncertain, it is expected to influence regional and multilateral trade negotiations and inspire new trade initiatives. The impact on regional integration is mixed, with some positive outcomes and potential disruptions depending on the inclusion of non-member countries and the harmonization of trade rules. Ultimately, the TPP could serve as a bridge to broader Asia-Pacific integration and WTO reform, though its full realization depends on political will and economic cooperation.