2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_A_Trade_Agenda_for_the_G_4页_182kb

G-20 Trade Agenda Summary

Core Content

This document outlines a proposed trade agenda for the G-20 summit countries, focusing on two main objectives: maintaining an open international trading regime and reviving the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. It emphasizes the need for concrete actions rather than mere declarations to ensure progress and credibility in global trade policy.

Main Views

1. G-20 Trade Standstill

• The G-20 agreed in 2008 to avoid new trade barriers, export restrictions, and WTO-inconsistent measures to stimulate exports.
• This standstill helped limit new protectionist measures, though not all countries adhered strictly to it.
• The document suggests extending the standstill to include border measures linked to carbon taxes and climate regulations, to prevent backdoor protectionism.

2. Reviving the Doha Round

• The Doha Round has stalled, with no significant progress made despite repeated commitments.
• The potential gains from Doha negotiations are estimated at $90 billion in global exports and $60 billion in global GDP, but these are not enough to secure political support.
• The gains are unevenly distributed, favoring a few large economies, which undermines the development mandate of the Doha Round.

3. G-20 Leadership in Doha Negotiations

• G-20 countries should improve their Doha offers in agriculture, manufactures, and services.
• Each country should adjust its offers according to its development status.
• A coordinated "Doha stimulus package" is needed, where all major trading nations make new offers to catalyze broader progress.
• The US should lead by reducing farm subsidies in a way that limits future payments if commodity prices drop, which would encourage other countries to reciprocate.

4. Supporting Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

• G-20 members should expand DFQF (duty-free/quota-free) treatment for LDCs.
• The goal is to cover more than 99% of tariff lines.
• Industrial countries should simplify and harmonize eligibility criteria, including rules of origin, to help LDCs benefit more from trade liberalization.
• Large developing countries should broaden their LDC preferences to match those of developed countries within five years.

5. Addressing Green Protectionism

• The G-20 should institute a temporary moratorium on new border measures based on carbon content of imports.
• This would prevent green protectionism from undermining the goals of low carbon and green growth.
• The document recommends this as a "peace clause" to avoid economic disruption and ensure coherence in climate policy.

Key Information

• G-20 Summit Meetings in 2010: Toronto (June) and Seoul (November).
• Trade Standstill: Initially agreed in 2008, but not fully enforced.
• Doha Round: Stalled with no progress, requiring concrete actions for revival.
• Economic Impact: Potential global export gains of $90 billion and GDP gains of $60 billion.
• LDCs: Need technical and financial assistance to benefit from trade liberalization.
• Climate Policy: Risk of unilateral border adjustments if not coordinated; a moratorium is recommended to prevent this.

Recommendations

• Revive the Doha Round: With more ambitious and balanced outcomes.
• Implement a "Doha stimulus package": Where all major trading nations contribute to reform.
• Expand DFQF treatment: For LDCs, with simplified eligibility rules.
• Promote a moratorium on green protectionism: To ensure climate and trade policies align.

Conclusion

The G-20 must not neglect trade in 2010, as the risk of protectionism remains high. Leaders should avoid empty promises and instead take concrete actions to support multilateral trade liberalization and global development. The proposed actions include reducing farm subsidies, expanding trade preferences for LDCs, and preventing green protectionism through a moratorium on carbon-based trade restrictions.