2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_Should_Korea_Join_the_Trans_16页_1mb

Summary of "Should Korea Join the Trans-Pacific Partnership?"

Core Content

This policy brief evaluates whether Korea should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a major trade agreement aimed at lowering trade and investment barriers and promoting economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. It outlines the potential benefits, challenges, and strategic implications of Korea's participation in the TPP.

Main Points

• TPP Participation Context:

  • The TPP has evolved over time, with 12 countries currently involved.
  • Korea has been actively negotiating FTAs with major trading partners and is considering joining the TPP.
  • The TPP could complement Korea's existing trade initiatives, including the Korea-China FTA, the trilateral China-Japan-Korea (CJK) FTA, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

• Korea's Trade and Investment Ties with TPP Countries:

  • In 2013, Korea's trade with the TPP-12 countries accounted for 32.3% of its global trade.
  • The United States and Japan are the largest trading partners, but China has become the most important in terms of trade volume and growth.
  • Korea's FDI in the TPP-12 countries is significant, with the U.S. and Japan being the top recipients.
  • Korea's FDI from the EU is substantial, but investment from China is growing rapidly.

• Korea's Trade Negotiating Policy:

  • Korea's goal is to enhance access to new markets, attract FDI, and improve competitiveness through domestic reforms.
  • The 2013 New Trade Roadmap emphasizes the importance of managing rapid changes in the international trade environment.
  • Korea has a network of FTAs with many of the TPP countries, but none match the comprehensive nature of the KORUS FTA.

• TPP vs. RCEP and CJK:

  • The TPP and RCEP are complementary but distinct. The TPP is more ambitious in terms of trade liberalization and rule-making.
  • The RCEP is ASEAN-centric and includes more developing economies, making it slower and less comprehensive.
  • The CJK trilateral talks aim to bridge Northeast Asian integration but have been hindered by political tensions.
  • The TPP could serve as a stepping stone toward broader economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region.

• Korea's Prospects for Joining the TPP:

  • Korea is considering three options: joining negotiations immediately, joining during the period between signing and entry into force, or acceding after the agreement is in force.
  • The U.S. is a key supporter of Korea's entry, which depends on Korea's implementation of the KORUS FTA and the reauthorization of U.S. trade promotion authority (TPA).
  • Korea is already implementing many reforms required by the TPP, reducing the cost of entry.

• Benefits of Joining the TPP:

  • Participation would upgrade Korea's trade agreements and open new opportunities for trade and investment.
  • The TPP's high standards could improve Korea's economic institutions and governance.
  • It would help Korea address sensitive issues like agricultural reforms and investor-state dispute settlement.

Key Information

• TPP's Impact:

  • The TPP is seen as the most substantial trade agreement under negotiation, with higher standards than existing FTAs.
  • It includes disciplines on labor, environment, intellectual property, and state-owned enterprises.

• Korea's Position:

  • Korea is already engaged in FTAs with most TPP countries.
  • The KORUS FTA has set a "gold standard" for trade agreements, which the TPP could build upon.
  • Korea's entry into the TPP could help revive stalled bilateral negotiations with Japan.

• Strategic Importance:

  • Korea aims to play a "linchpin" role between the TPP and RCEP.
  • Joining the TPP would enhance Korea's influence in shaping the future of Asia-Pacific economic integration.

• Challenges:

  • Political tensions with Japan over issues like agricultural liberalization and trade deficits remain a challenge.
  • The U.S. decision to support Korea's entry depends on its own progress in the TPP negotiations.

Conclusion

Korea has much to gain from joining the TPP, both economically and geopolitically. The agreement could help Korea achieve its trade policy goals, improve economic competitiveness, and strengthen its role in regional integration. Despite challenges, the benefits of participation outweigh the risks, and Korea should act promptly to secure its place in the TPP.