《中国的可持续航空燃料——航空业碳中和之路》英文版-19页_1mb

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in China： Key Points

1. Background & Importance

   • Aviation is a high-emission sector, contributing about 3% of global CO₂ emissions but projected to account for 22% by 2050.
   • SAF is identified as the most viable near-term solution to reduce aviation's carbon footprint by up to 85%, as a drop-in fuel compatible with existing infrastructure.

2. Market Overview

   • By 2030, China’s jet fuel demand is estimated at 60.5 million tons; SAF could reach 3.1 million tons/year if aligning with IATA’s 5.2% target.
   • China has abundant feedstock potential (e.g., used cooking oil, agricultural waste), but supply chains and processing efficiency are challenges.

3. Technical Pathways

   • HEFA (Hydrotreated Esters & Fatty Acids): Most mature and cost-competitive, dominates China’s current SAF production.
   • FT (Fischer-Tropsch): Requires developing sustainable feedstock supply chains.
   • ATJ (Alcohol-to-Jet): High feedstock availability in the US, but costs may be higher in China.
   • PtL (Power-to-Liquid): Highly efficient (99% GHG reduction) but still in development.

4. Production & Policy Support

   • Current production capacity: ~1.6–1.8 Mt/year.
   • Price barriers exist, with SAF currently 2–5x more expensive than fossil fuel; certifications and economies of scale may reduce costs.
   • Policy: Chinese government promotes SAF via multiple 14th FYP action plans, NDRC guidelines, and aims for 10% SAF use by 2030.

5. Challenges & Opportunities

   • Limitations: High production costs, certification systems, feedstock logistics.
   • Opportunities: Collaboration across ecosystem players, policy support, scaling via RECs and contracts.

6. Future Outlook

   • By 2050, SAF demand in China could reach 86 Mt/year with potential capacity exceeding 82 Mt/year.
   • Significant investments are needed now to align with net-zero commitments and leverage China’s renewable energy infrastructure.

Call to Action

• Policy Influence: Strengthen regulatory support and incentives.
• Ecosystem Innovation: Accelerate R&D, attract investment, and streamline supply chains.
• Demand Creation: Leverage global SAF trends and partnerships to stimulate market growth.