20140512-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_576kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 12 May 2014
Core Content
This summary outlines the key developments and market insights in the oil and gas sector across Asia, focusing on pricing trends, company performance, and geopolitical events impacting the industry. It also includes analyst ratings and valuation comparisons for various oil and gas firms in the region.
Major Market Trends
- U.S. Trading: Major products remained flat during U.S. trading on Friday, while the Henry Hub price declined by 0.9%.
- Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent Crude: Closed at USD107.89, down 0.1% in the last day, 0.6% in the last week, and 0.1% in the last month.
- WTI Crude: Closed at USD99.99, down 0.3% in the last day, up 0.2% in the last week, and down 2.6% in the last month.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Closed at USD104.86, up 1.2% in the last day, flat in the last week, and up 0.4% in the last month.
- China Daqing Spot: Closed at USD109.11, up 1.1% in the last day, up 4.1% in the last week, and down 0.8% in the last month.
- LNG Prices: The LNG Northeast Asia CFR index closed at USD13.85, with no change in the last day, down 4.5% in the last week, and down 8.3% in the last month.
- Fuel Oil: Discounts widened in Asia as demand remained weak, with Victor Shum noting that falling fuel oil prices reflect a slowing Chinese economy.
- Paraxylene/Benzene Spread: Dropped to a 9-year low, indicating a weak PX market.
News Headlines
- China's Oil Import Market: China may open its oil import market to more foreign players, according to the State Council, as part of broader economic reforms.
- Premier Li Keqiang and Angola: The Chinese Premier is expected to sign oil purchase contracts with Angola, which exports half its crude oil to China.
- Vietnam Protests: Protests erupted in Vietnam against China's offshore oil drilling in the South China Sea, supported by the Vietnamese government.
- Indonesia's Drilling Delays: O&G drilling activities in Indonesia were behind schedule in Q1 2014, with only 16% of wells drilled, and the investment climate is not conducive.
- South Korea's LNG Strategy: South Korea aims to increase LNG imports from North America to avoid the 'Asian premium' on Middle Eastern gas.
- Petrobras Performance: Petrobras reported lower oil & gas output and profits for Q1 2014 but remains confident in meeting its production growth target.
Company Reports
- MISC Bhd: Petroleum operations were a key positive in Q1 2014. The firm is rated BUY with a target price of MYR7.20.
- Perisai Petroleum: Secured a 3-year JU contract, expected to contribute MYR42m-44m net profit annually. Rated BUY with a target price of MYR1.76.
- Malaysia Marine And Heavy Engineering: Results met expectations but were below consensus. Rated BUY with a target price of MYR4.20.
- Ezion Holdings: Q1 2014 results were in line, with PATMI of USD45.2m. Secured a USD63.9m contract. Rated BUY with a target price of SGD2.70.
- Petronas Gas: Reported a routine quarter with net profit in line with expectations. Rated HOLD with a target price of MYR23.50.
- Sembcorp Marine: Underperformed in Q1 2014, with flat operating margins. Downgraded to HOLD with a target price of SGD4.36.
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (09 May) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2013 | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013 | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.94 | NR | 219.9 | 98.7 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.80 | NR | 95.1 | 118.7 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.84 | NR | 74.0 | 107.4 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 347.95 | NR | 49.7 | 23.6 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 997.60 | NR | 53.8 | 57.0 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 335.10 | 443.00 | 10.7 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 485.80 | NR | 5.9 | 11.8 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 362.90 | NR | 2.1 | 7.9 | 24.5 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.46 | 15.90 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 3.2 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.25 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 69.25 | 87.00 | 9.6 | 21.5 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 51.25 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 40.6 | 5.5 | 3.2 |
| Asian Refiners Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 21.8 | 16.5 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Exxon Mobile | XOM US | NR | 101.95 | NR | 437.8 | 1,117.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Chevron | CVX US | NR | 125.03 | NR | 238.0 | 741.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | NR | 77.64 | NR | 95.3 | 405.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Shell | RDSA LN | NR | 2,370.00 | NR | 263.2 | 17,441.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BP plc | BP / LN | NR | 500.90 | NR | 155.7 | 23,694.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 135.63 | NR | 91.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Rosneft Oil | ROSN LI | NR | 6.43 | NR | 68.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LUKOIL | LKOH RX | NR | 1,942.80 | NR | 46.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MOL Hunarian O&G | MOL HB | NR | 13,095.00 | NR | 6.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Petroleo Brasileiro | PETR3 BZ | NR | 16.66 | NR | 100.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total | FP FP | NR | 52.26 | NR | 171.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Eni S.p.A. | ENI IM | NR | 18.92 | NR | 94.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Repsol S.A. | REP SM | NR | 19.89 | NR | 36.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Stateoil ASA | STL NO | NR | 185.40 | NR | 100.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OMV AG | OMV AV | NR | 32.48 | NR | 14.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP PL | NR | 12.80 | NR | 14.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Global Oil Major Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14.2 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 14.0 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
Key Insights
- China: The country is opening up its oil import market, with the Premier expected to sign contracts with Angola. This reflects broader economic reforms and increased energy demand.
- Vietnam: Protests against China's oil drilling activities in the South China Sea highlight ongoing tensions in the region.
- Indonesia: Exploration activities are behind schedule, and the investment climate is not favorable, potentially impacting future production.
- South Korea: Seeking to secure more LNG from North America to reduce costs.
- Petrobras: Reported lower Q1 2014 output and profits but remains optimistic about meeting its production targets.
- Valuation: The table provides a detailed comparison of valuations for various companies, including P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and yield, indicating market expectations and performance.
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2601 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | panda.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460 | yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835 | bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
