20140522-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_576kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 22 May 2014
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting recent developments, price movements, and analyst reports. It includes information on major price indices, news headlines, and valuation comparisons for various oil and gas companies.
Major Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Up 1.1% overnight, closing at USD110.55.
- WTI Crude Oil: Up 1.9% overnight, closing at USD104.07.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Slightly down by -0.1%, closing at USD106.48.
- China Daqing Spot: Up by 0.1%, closing at USD110.56.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Up by 0.1%, closing at USD4.47.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: No change in price, closing at USD14.40.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down by 0.4%, closing at USD117.86.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down by 0.4%, closing at USD122.66.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: No change in price, closing at USD613.27.
- Gold: Down by 0.1%, closing at USD1,292.04.
- USD-CNY: Down by 0.1%, closing at 6.23.
- DJI: Up by 0.1%, closing at 16,533.06.
- S&P 500: Up by 0.2%, closing at 1,888.03.
Key News Headlines
- Russia-China Gas Deal: Russia and China finalized a long-awaited gas supply contract, with Gazprom supplying 38bcm per annum to China over 30 years.
- China's Private Investment: China's NDRC encouraged private investment in petrochemical projects, supporting 80 infrastructure-focused projects.
- Indonesia's Licensing Round: Indonesia released details of the first licensing round in 2014, with seven tenders proposed by Pertamina.
- GCC Petrochemical Expansion: The GCC is divided over Qatar's role as a major gas supplier for petrochemical capacity expansion.
- Woodside Exits Leviathan Project: Australia's Woodside exited the Leviathan project in Israel due to failed negotiations.
- SembMarine Jack-Up Contract: Sembcorp Marine secured a USD236m jack-up drilling rig contract.
- EA Technique Shipbuilding Expansion: EA Technique plans to use IPO funds to expand shipbuilding facilities.
- Ezra Subsea Contracts: Ezra Holdings secured USD95m in subsea services contracts.
Analyst Reports
- Singapore Offshore & Marine: Rating downgraded to NEUTRAL, suggesting a shift in valuation framework.
- UMW Oil & Gas Corporation: No surprises, with a target price of MYR5.15 and expectations for stronger 2H14 performance.
- Dialog Group: Earnings shortfall, with revised forecasts and a target price of MYR3.90.
- Perisai Petroleum: Expected losses in 1Q14, but with potential for improvement in 2H14.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Secured 5 contracts worth USD312m, with a target price of MYR5.30.
- Nam Cheong Ltd: Strong performance in 1Q14, with a target price of SGD0.41.
- Petron Corp: Less volatile 1Q14, with a target price of PHP15.90.
- Mermaid Maritime: Weaker subsea performance, with a target price of SGD0.59.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price | Target Price | Mkt Cap | 90D T/O | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 9.30 | NR | 224.5 | 96.1 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.13 | NR | 98.3 | 112.0 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 13.42 | NR | 77.3 | 100.8 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 398.45 | NR | 58.1 | 29.7 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,078.40 | NR | 59.4 | 72.2 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 348.05 | 443.00 | 11.3 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 560.30 | NR | 6.9 | 13.8 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 424.45 | NR | 2.5 | 10.3 | 28.7 | 15.7 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.04 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 30.1 | 34.4 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.05 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | n.a. | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| BPCB TB | BCP TB | buy | 30.25 | 41.00 | 1.3 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| IRPC PCL | IRPC TB | hold | 3.60 | 3.74 | 2.3 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 69.25 | 87.00 | 9.6 | n.a. | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 51.25 | 65.00 | 3.2 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 21.8 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil Service)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price | Target Price | Mkt Cap | 90D T/O | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.64 | NR | 1.6 | 5.4 | 25.1 | 21.9 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 18.84 | NR | 12.3 | 25.3 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.40 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 47.6 | 14.7 | 19.9 | 13.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.22 | NR | 0.9 | 4.8 | 16.1 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 14.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.81 | NR | 0.8 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.4 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.70 | NR | 5.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 26.1 | 1.4 | 4.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.29 | NR | 0.8 | 3.1 | 17.3 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 17.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | buy | 1.55 | 1.90 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | buy | 1.65 | 1.90 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 19.4 | 19.9 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 27.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.90 | 5.00 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 26.5 | 24.2 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Coastal Contracts | COCO MK | NR | 4.79 | NR | 0.8 | 1.2 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Daya Materials | DAYA MK | NR | 0.32 | NR | 0.1 | 2.4 | 118.5 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Dayang Enterprise | DEHB MK | NR | 3.64 | NR | 0.9 | 1.0 | 30.2 | 14.2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 23.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.66 | 3.90 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 45.4 | 31.0 | 30.4 | 27.5 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 0.9 |
Summary of Key Points
- Price Movements: Brent and WTI prices increased, while other indices remained largely flat.
- Strategic Deals: A major Russia-China gas deal was finalized after a decade of negotiations, indicating long-term strategic interest.
- Investment Trends: China is opening up to private investment in petrochemical projects, suggesting a move toward market reforms.
- Licensing Rounds: Indonesia initiated its first licensing round in 2014, signaling increased exploration activity.
- Petrochemical Expansion: The GCC's expansion may depend on gas from Qatar, highlighting regional interdependence.
- Contract Announcements: Several companies, including Woodside and SembMarine, made significant contract announcements.
- Valuation Insights: The report includes detailed valuation comparisons, including P/E, EV/EBITDA, and RoE metrics, offering insight into market expectations.
- Analyst Ratings: Various companies received ratings, with some maintained at BUY and others at hold or sell, based on financial performance and market outlook.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
