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报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 02 July 2014
Core Content
This summary provides an overview of the oil and gas market activities and analyst ratings from 02 July 2014, including price movements, company news, and investment recommendations across various regions.
Main News Highlights
- Sinopec announced capital introduction plans for its newly set up oil products marketing company, aiming to offer up to 30% of its equity.
- PetroChina increased its July naphtha ex-factory price by 1% to CNY6,236/tonne.
- Chesapeake's spun-off oilfield services unit, Seventy Seven Energy, was listed on the NYSE under the symbol SSE.
- An underground oil pipeline leak led to a fire in Dalian, China, attributed to CNPC.
- KrisEnergy acquired Premier Oil's 41.67% stake in the Block A Aceh production sharing contract in Indonesia for USD40m.
- BP received delivery of two more platform supply vessels for its west of Shetland operations.
- Nam Cheong sold four vessels worth USD92m, all to be delivered in 2015.
- Petrobras reported promising exploration results with a well off the coast of Brazil producing 29,000 bpd of oil.
Key Investment Reports
Sinopec
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: HKD6.85
- Summary: Restructuring update; no IPO planned. Management retains 70% of enlarged capital. Valuation appears stretched without immediate earnings improvement.
Yinson Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR3.03
- Summary: 1QFY1/15 results are in line with expectations. Targets one new FPSO job in 2014. Adjusted target price due to rights and share split.
Petron Corp
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: PHP16.80
- Summary: Full completion of RMP-2 is near; stock has underperformed the PSEi by 28 ppts. Revised target price with updated forecasts to mid-2015.
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR5.30
- Summary: 1QFY1/15 core net profit is in line; 2.35sen DPS is a positive surprise. Secured two new EPCIC contracts worth MYR1.3b, increasing backlog to MYR30b.
Offshore & Marine
- Rating: NEUTRAL
- Summary: OSV operators remain optimistic about long-term fundamentals but cautious about near-term challenges. Recommend exposure to Ezion, Mermaid Maritime, Nam Cheong, and Vard.
China Oil & Gas (Initiation)
- Rating: NEUTRAL
- Summary: Initiated with a NEUTRAL view. Recommended BUY for PetroChina and NewOcean Energy. HOLD for CNOOC and Sinopec.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (Closing 01 July 2014)
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Dollar Chg. 1D | 1D % Chg | 1W % Chg | 1M % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 112.29 | -0.07 | -0.1% | -1.9% | 3.3% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 105.34 | -0.03 | 0.0% | -0.7% | 3.3% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 108.87 | -0.13 | -0.1% | -1.4% | 2.3% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 110.48 | -0.45 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 0.1% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.44 | -0.02 | -0.5% | -2.6% | -1.9% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 122.82 | 2.09 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 123.19 | 0.29 | 0.2% | -1.3% | 1.7% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 618.68 | -3.09 | -0.5% | -2.0% | 0.4% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,325.77 | -1.56 | -0.1% | 0.6% | 6.1% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.20 | -0.00 | 0.0% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,956.07 | 129.47 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,973.32 | 13.09 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details and market insights.
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details and market insights.
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details and market insights.
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details and market insights.
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): Contact details and market insights.
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): Contact details and market insights.
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details and market insights.
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact details and market insights.
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact details and market insights.
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details and market insights.
Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 01-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % 2014E | P/B 2014E | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 9.79 | 11.50 | 222.7 | 86.1 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.39 | 6.85 | 99.4 | 83.1 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.92 | 14.34 | 80.2 | 93.5 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 423.10 | NR | 60.3 | 49.4 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 18.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,008.00 | NR | 54.3 | 72.6 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 363.25 | 443.00 | 11.5 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 23.6 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 589.60 | NR | 7.1 | 18.8 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 413.15 | NR | 2.3 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.74 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 15.9 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 6.28 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| BPCB TB | BCP TB | Buy | 29.50 | 41.00 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 13.4 | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| IRPC PCL | IRPC TB | Hold | 3.38 | 3.74 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 36.0 | 18.3 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 67.50 | 87.00 | 9.4 | 25.8 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.00 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM US | NR | 101.36 | NR | 435.3 | 994.9 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 18.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Chevron | CVX US | NR | 130.54 | NR | 248.5 | 725.8 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | NR | 86.11 | NR | 105.7 | 427.0 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 13.6 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| Shell | RDSA LN | NR | 2,424.50 | NR | 271.3 | 17,669.4 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 12.1 | 1.4 | 4.6 |
| BP plc | BP / LN | NR | 515.30 | NR | 163.0 | 19,385.0 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 249.70 | NR | 24.4 | 5.1 | 24.6 | 22.7 | 15.5 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
Summary of Key Themes
- China Energy Reforms: Phase II is underway, leading to structural changes in the industry. PetroChina and NewOcean Energy are recommended as BUY, while Sinopec and CNOOC are HOLD.
- OSV Market: Operators are optimistic about long-term demand but cautious about short-term challenges. Sectors are rated NEUTRAL.
- Asia Oil & Gas Valuation: A range of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples are presented, highlighting the valuation dynamics across the region.
- Market Movements: Oil prices remained flat, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw gains of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.
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