20140416-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_572kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 16 Apr 2014
Core Content Overview
The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 15 April 2014, including price movements, recent news, and analyst reports. It highlights key developments in various countries and the performance of specific companies in the sector.
Major Price Movements
- Crude Oil (WTI): Increased by 0.1% to $103.85/bbl.
- Crude Oil (Brent): Gained 1.9% to $109.36/bbl.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Rose by 1.4% to $105.48/bbl.
- China Daqing Spot: Increased by 1.5% to $111.18/bbl.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Declined by 1.2% to $4.57/MMBtu.
- LNG Japan Import CFR: Price at $16.63/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Price at $15.00/MMBtu.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Increased by 0.7% to $118.01/bbl.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Rose by 1.3% to $123.77/bbl.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Increased by 0.9% to $607.87/mt.
- Gold: Fell by 1.2% to $1,303.08/Oz.
- USD-JPY: Increased by 0.2% to 101.85.
- USD-EUR: Increased by 0.5% to 0.72.
- USD-CNY: Increased by 0.2% to 6.22.
- DJI: Increased by 1.5% to 16,262.56.
- S&P 500: Increased by 1.5% to 1,842.98.
- 30Y T-Bill: Declined by 0.6% to 3.46%.
Key News Highlights
China
- CNOOC: Planning to build a 300kt crude dock at Yantai Port, pending environmental approval. The dock will have a throughput of 16mtpa, with 14mtpa allocated to imports and 2mtpa for exports.
- Sinopec: Agreed to acquire O&G assets in Kazakhstan from Lukoil for USD1.2b. Sinopec already owns 50% of the projects and the acquisition is expected to increase its output by 10.2mmboe annually.
Yunnan
- Gasoline and Gasoil Demand: Declined due to increased use of autogas by automobiles.
Thailand
- Group I Base Oil Exports: Reduced exports to China due to capacity maintenance and output ratio adjustments.
- SRFO Import Margin: Fell further into negative territory, reaching -CNY175/t for Shandong importers.
Iraq
- Daewoo EPC Contract: Approved to carry out a USD588.8m gas and oil separation plant (GOSP) at the Zubair field, with other players including Eni, Occidental Petroleum, and Korea Gas Corporation.
Indonesia
- Pertamina Output: Increased by 4% YoY to 196k bpd in 1Q14, with a target of 280.2k bpd of oil and 1.57bcfd of natural gas for 2014.
Analyst Reports
Dialog Group
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR3.90
- Reason: In dispute with TLP, entering arbitration; if unresolved, potential court action. Maintaining BUY rating.
Keppel Corp
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD12.48
- Reason: Extending its China presence via a 30-year management agreement for Titan Quanzhou Shipyard, aiming to tap into the offshore market.
Ezion Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD2.90
- Reason: Acquiring a 6.9% stake in AusGroup, entering an MOU for collaboration in Australia.
Petronas Gas
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: MYR23.50
- Reason: While not significantly earnings-accretive, the revenue profile is more stable due to offsetting factors.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (15-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.68 | NR | 222.2 | 98.4 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.89 | NR | 100.3 | 118.2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.66 | NR | 72.9 | 123.4 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 319.35 | NR | 45.2 | 20.8 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 949.10 | NR | 50.7 | 53.4 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 359.35 | 443.00 | 11.3 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 445.70 | NR | 5.3 | 10.2 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 314.20 | NR | 1.8 | 6.6 | 21.2 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.64 | 15.90 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 23.4 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 5.85 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 23.1 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil Service)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (15-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 4.99 | NR | 1.4 | 8.0 | 22.2 | 18.9 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 18.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.38 | NR | 13.2 | 33.3 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.38 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 47.2 | 14.6 | 19.8 | 13.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 3.82 | NR | 0.8 | 4.8 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 14.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.93 | NR | 0.8 | 3.3 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.75 | NR | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 26.1 | 1.4 | 4.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 3.92 | NR | 0.8 | 4.3 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | Buy | 1.44 | 1.90 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 14.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 1.54 | 1.85 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 18.1 | 18.6 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 27.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 4.01 | 5.00 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 27.3 | 24.9 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 3.57 | 3.90 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 44.2 | 30.3 | 28.4 | 26.7 | 15.2 | 6.4 | 0.9 |
Notes
- NR = Not Rated
- UR = Under Review
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples are from Bloomberg consensus for companies not under MayBank Kim Eng's coverage.
- The average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
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