年报分享：聚酯：产业链供需错配，利润向原料集中-20240112-招商期货-34页_1mb

Key Findings on Polyester Demand

• Demand for polyester is expected to be neutral to optimistic in 2024, with an estimated annual growth rate of around 8%.
• Factors include sustained domestic economic policies supporting apparel and textile consumption, while the housing sector downturn may limit some growth areas.

Key Findings on PX (Para-xylene)

• 2024 will see PX supply-demand imbalances, with reduced new capacity expansion (only around 300,000 tons planned, primarily from the fourth quarter), leading to periodic tightness.
• PXN (PX-Neutral) prices may benefit from ongoing call oil demand, but are vulnerable to gasoline demand uncertainties and global economic conditions.
• Overall, industry profits are shifting upstream due to these imbalances, with PX likely following crude oil prices in an absolute range of 4,800-6,400 yuan/ton.

Key Findings on PTA (Polyethylene Terephthalate Acid)

• PTA processing fees continue to face pressure due to sustained capacity expansion (450,000 tons in 2024), which may result in cumulative inventory build-up.
• Balances could allow for minor adjustments if new capacity is not fully realized or if demand slows, but absolute prices will likely mirror crude oil movements.

Key Findings on MEG (Monoethylene Glycol)

• MEG market conditions show marginal improvement as demand-side pressures ease from high capacity growth, with an expected slight reduction in inventory starting in the second half of 2024.
• Prices are likely to see a long-term upward shift, but remain constrained by high sea port inventories.

Overall Market Outlook

• The industry faces supply-demand mismatches, with profits increasingly concentrated in raw materials.
• Trading strategies emphasize monitoring crude oil trends for PX and PTA, while opening long positions for MEG during dips, focusing on risk management due to uncertainty in demand and supply dynamics.