期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-spring1999_62页_5mb

报告摘要

NBER Reporter Summary - Spring 1999

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Spring 1999 provides an overview of research and policy discussions in the field of monetary economics and related areas. It highlights the importance of microeconomic evidence in understanding aggregate economic fluctuations, the role of inflation targeting as a policy framework, and the nonlinear adjustment processes in employment, investment, and productivity dynamics.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Monetary Economics Program

The NBER's Monetary Economics Program focuses on understanding monetary policy effects and alternative policy frameworks.
Researchers emphasize the need for systematic research to improve macroeconomic analysis.
Notable publications include:
- Monetary Policy (Mankiw, 1994)
- Reducing Inflation (Romer and Romer, 1997)
- Monetary Policy Rules (Taylor, 1999)

2. Effects of Monetary Policy

Ben S. Bernanke and Ilian Mihov examine two key propositions:
- Liquidity Effect: Monetary expansions lower nominal interest rates in the short run.
- Long-Run Neutrality: Monetary policy does not affect real variables in the long run.
The evidence supports both propositions, indicating that monetary policy has short-run effects but long-run neutrality.

3. Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Laurence M. Ball finds that disinflation (reducing inflation) may increase the natural rate of unemployment in the long run.
Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer argue that low inflation can improve the well-being of the poor in the long run, contrasting with Ball’s findings.

4. Inflation Targeting as a Policy Framework

Inflation targeting is a popular policy approach among central banks in several countries (e.g., New Zealand, UK).
It involves setting an inflation range and provides transparency and accountability for monetary policy.
While it allows some discretion, it constrains how that discretion is used.
Bernanke and Mishkin note that inflation targeting is not a strict rule but rather a framework that improves policy communication and public understanding.

5. Efficient Inflation Estimation

Michael F. Bryan, Stephen G. Cecchetti, and Rodney L. Wiggins II propose trimmed means as a better method for estimating underlying inflation trends.
Trimmed means exclude extreme price changes, providing a more accurate reflection of long-term inflation.

6. Public Perception of Inflation

Robert J. Shiller surveys public attitudes toward inflation and finds significant differences from those of economists.
The public is more concerned about inflation's impact on real buying power and views it as an important national priority.
Economists, on the other hand, are less concerned and see inflation as a less pressing issue.

Microeconomic Insights into Aggregate Fluctuations

7. Understanding Aggregate Fluctuations: The Importance of Building from Microeconomic Evidence

John C. Haltiwanger discusses the microeconomic basis of aggregate fluctuations.
Idiosyncratic factors dominate the distribution of growth rates across establishments.
Within-industry heterogeneity is significant, with some establishments growing rapidly while others decline.

8. Job Creation and Destruction

Job creation and destruction are key drivers of employment fluctuations.
In manufacturing, about 10% of jobs are created or destroyed annually.
In nonmanufacturing, the rate is slightly higher.
Job reallocation is more fluid than previously thought, with most changes occurring within sectors rather than between them.

9. Nonlinear Micro Adjustment

The adjustment process at the firm level is nonlinear, with large changes often coming from high-growth or high-attrition plants.
Adjustment hazard models show that large gaps between desired and actual employment lead to greater adjustment.
The marginal responsiveness of employment to shocks varies significantly over time, with recessions amplifying these effects.

10. Investment Dynamics

Investment adjustment is also nonlinear, with irreversibilities and nonconvexities in adjustment costs.
Investment spikes are more likely after a period of inactivity.
Time-varying elasticities suggest that the response of investment to shocks is procyclical and varies by up to 70%.

11. Productivity Dynamics

Productivity growth is driven by reallocation of resources and entry/exit of firms.
Within-sector reallocation is a major contributor to aggregate productivity growth.
High-productivity firms replace low-productivity ones, especially in service sectors.
Microeconomic evidence suggests that reallocation plays a significant role in productivity changes.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter emphasizes the importance of microeconomic data in understanding aggregate economic fluctuations and monetary policy impacts. It highlights the complexity of economic dynamics, the role of nonlinear adjustments, and the evolving nature of policy frameworks such as inflation targeting. These insights provide a foundation for both theoretical and empirical research in macroeconomics.

Key Information

NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
The Monetary Economics Program focuses on monetary policy effects and alternative frameworks.
Inflation targeting is a framework that increases transparency and accountability.
Microeconomic data is essential for understanding aggregate fluctuations.
Nonlinear adjustment processes are central to employment and investment dynamics.
Reallocation of resources and firms is a key driver of productivity growth.

References

Bernanke and Mihov, "The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality," NBER Working Paper No. 6608, June 1998
Ball, "Distributions and the NAIRU," NBER Working Paper No. 5520, March 1996
Romer and Romer, "Monetary Policy and the Well-Being of the Poor," NBER Working Paper No. 6793, November 1998
Bernanke and Mishkin, "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?" NBER Working Paper No. 5893, July 1997
Bryan, Cecchetti, and Wiggins, "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Paper No. 6183, September 1997
Shiller, "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?" NBER Working Paper No. 5539, April 1996
Haltiwanger, Foster, and Krizan, "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Working Paper No. 6803, November 1998

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