期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1987_48页_850kb

NBER Reporter Summary: International Studies Program (Spring 1987)

Core Content

The Spring 1987 issue of the NBER Reporter highlights the research and activities of the Program in International Studies. The program has been focusing on several key areas of international economics, including trade and competitiveness, strategic behavior and trade, international macroeconomics, international finance, and developing country debt. The research is largely supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Ford Foundation, and other organizations.

Main Research Areas

Trade and Competitiveness

• Focus: Analysis of U.S. trade, adjustment to changes in global trade patterns, and the competitiveness of U.S. firms.
• Key Findings:
  • U.S. multinational firms maintained their share of world manufactured exports despite a decline in U.S. domestic exports.
  • Real appreciation of the dollar has had significant effects on manufacturing employment across various sectors.
  • Prolonged dollar appreciation could lead to hysteresis in trade, affecting long-term competitiveness.
• Notable Work:
  • Research by Kravis and Lipsey on U.S. multinationals.
  • Papers by Grossman, Love, and Branson on the steel industry and dollar appreciation.
  • Baldwin and Krugman’s study on the semiconductor industry.
  • Work by McCulloch on U.S.-Japan trade relations.
• Future Plans:
  • A forthcoming NBER book on trade and structural change in Pacific Asia.
  • Conferences on U.S. trade policy and strategic behavior in trade.

Strategic Behavior and Trade

• Focus: The impact of trade policy in the context of imperfect competition and strategic interactions between governments and the private sector.
• Key Findings:
  • Strategic behavior can influence trade equilibria and domestic welfare.
  • Government intervention and market structure can lead to different outcomes in trade.
• Notable Work:
  • Krugman's research on increasing returns and industrial organization.
  • Studies by Krishna, Brander, and Spencer on market structure and trade.
  • Analysis by Eichengreen and Frankel on the effects of trade policy.
• Future Plans:
  • Conferences on empirical methods for international trade and strategic behavior in trade.

International Macroeconomics

• Focus: Macroeconomic policy coordination and the effects of external shocks on developing countries.
• Key Findings:
  • The U.S. dollar's real appreciation in the 1980s is attributed to fiscal policy shifts and potential speculative bubbles.
  • Devaluations may be contractionary in the short run and can lead to inflationary crises in unstable conditions.
  • Stabilization and liberalization policies may have different outcomes depending on the sequence of implementation.
• Notable Work:
  • Research by Feldstein, Branson, and Krugman on the dollar's appreciation.
  • Dornbusch's analysis on inflation, exchange rates, and stabilization.
  • Gordon and others on wage stickiness and its implications.
• Future Plans:
  • Continued study of policy coordination among major industrial countries.
  • Research on the effects of external shocks on developing economies.

International Finance

• Focus: Structure and functioning of international financial markets, including interest rate linkages, exchange rate volatility, capital controls, and speculative bubbles.
• Key Findings:
  • Exchange rate volatility may be driven by risk premiums and speculative bubbles.
  • Capital controls can be anticipated by financial markets, influencing capital flows.
  • The collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes is often triggered by expectations of insolvency.
• Notable Work:
  • Mishkin, Campbell, Clarida, and Cumby on interest rate differentials.
  • Rogoff and Hodrick on exchange rate volatility and risk premiums.
  • Research on the role of sovereign risk and renegotiation in debt.
• Future Plans:
  • Further exploration of exchange rate regime choice and financial market interactions.

Developing Country Debt

• Focus: Debt problems in developing countries, including sovereign risk, default, and the implications of debt repudiation.
• Key Findings:
  • Debt repudiation can affect growth and borrowing ability of debtor countries.
  • The 1930s debt crisis provides historical insights into debt and default dynamics.
• Notable Work:
  • Sachs’ working group on developing country debt, supported by the Ford and Tinker Foundations.
  • Research by Rogoff and Bulow on sovereign debt and renegotiation.
  • Studies by Eaton, Gersovitz, and Stiglitz on country risk and asymmetric information.
• Future Plans:
  • Continued case studies and analysis of debt and default issues.

Other Projects

• U.S.-Japan Economic Relations: Marston leads a group examining U.S.-Japan economic ties, supported by the U.S.-Japan Fulbright Commission.
• Fiscal Policies: Frenkel organized a conference on the international aspects of fiscal policies in December 1985.

Key Information

• The program has been active since 1978 and has received support from various foundations and organizations.
• Research findings emphasize the importance of strategic behavior, empirical analysis, and the role of financial markets in international economic dynamics.
• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization dedicated to quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• The program has published numerous working papers and is planning future conferences and books to disseminate its findings.