那提西银行-欧洲-宏观经济-如何创建无风险的欧元区资产-20171206-5页_430kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the need for creating a large-scale, risk-free asset within the euro zone to address the current excess demand for risk-free government bonds and to restore capital mobility among euro-zone countries.

Main Views

The current situation in the euro zone is characterized by:

Excess demand for risk-free assets globally, which is particularly evident in the euro zone.
Low interest rates on risk-free bonds due to this excess demand.
Segmentation between countries with low-risk bonds (e.g., Germany, France, the Netherlands) and those with higher risk, leading to a lack of capital mobility.

The author suggests that the creation of a large-scale risk-free euro-zone bond is necessary to:

Absorb the excess demand for risk-free assets.
Restore capital mobility between euro-zone countries.
Prevent the distortion of interest rates caused by the current fragmented bond market.

Key Information

There are two main approaches to creating a large-scale risk-free euro-zone bond:

1. Mutualisation of Existing Public Debt

This involves pooling public debt from all euro-zone countries into a single bond.
However, this approach is not feasible due to opposition from countries with lower interest rates.
These countries would face higher interest rates and transfer payments to others, which is politically and economically unpalatable.

2. Synthetic Bond via ETF-like Structure

A synthetic bond can be created by combining individual national government bonds into a single ETF-like product.
The euro zone as a whole is fiscally solvent, so this synthetic bond could be considered risk-free.
However, this approach introduces a moral hazard, where countries might increase their public debt without facing higher interest rates, as the debt would be bundled into the synthetic bond.

To mitigate the moral hazard, the author proposes that:

Fiscal discipline must be introduced alongside the creation of the synthetic bond.
This includes binding limits on fiscal deficits and caps on the share of public debt that can be included in the synthetic bond (e.g., a percentage of GDP).

Conclusion

The only viable way to create a large-scale, risk-free euro-zone bond is through the synthetic bond approach, combined with fiscal discipline.
This would help correct the imbalance in the demand for risk-free assets and reintegrate capital flows within the euro zone.

Disclaimer

The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
It is strictly confidential and not a personalized investment recommendation.
The views expressed are personal opinions of the author and do not constitute financial advice.
No liability is accepted for any use or interpretation of the document.
The document does not take into account specific tax rules or investment objectives of the recipient.
It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments.

Regulatory Information

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In the UK, it is regulated by FCA and PRA.
In Germany, it is authorized by ACPR and supervised by BaFin.
In Spain, it is authorized by ACPR and regulated by Bank of Spain and CNMV.
In Italy, it is authorized by ACPR and regulated by Bank of Italy and CONSOB.
In Dubai, it is authorized by DFSA and operates within the DIFC.