那提西银行-欧元区-宏观经济-欧元区需要经济政策规则么？-20180528-5页_614kb

Flash Economics Summary: Are Economic Policy Rules Needed in the Euro Zone?

Core Content

This document explores the theoretical and practical implications of economic policy rules, particularly fiscal rules, in the context of the euro zone. It addresses the debate on whether such rules are necessary for maintaining financial stability and restoring capital mobility among member states.

Main Views

Theoretical Framework

The euro zone is presented as having two theoretical models for fiscal policy:

1. Federalist Model

   • Involves a common euro-zone budget, financed by common taxes and the issuance of eurobonds.
   • Strict fiscal policy rules are essential to prevent excessive fiscal deficits, which could lead to increased tax burdens or higher debt issuance, thereby affecting the creditworthiness of the entire euro zone.

2. Non-Federalist Model

   • Each country maintains its own budget, taxes, and public debt.
   • Fiscal rules are not strictly necessary in this model because there are no negative externalities from a country's fiscal deficits.
   • In times of crisis, only the interest rates of the affected countries rise, not those of others (as seen during the euro-zone crisis).

Practical Considerations

• Current fiscal situation: Charts show that, except for Germany, most euro-zone countries have not reduced their structural fiscal deficits to equilibrium levels during regular growth periods.
• Public debt ratios: The public debt ratio of the euro zone excluding Germany is no longer decreasing, indicating a need for policy intervention.
• Capital mobility: Capital mobility within the euro zone has declined. Germany and Spain's excess savings are now directed to the rest of the world rather than being lent to other euro-zone countries.
• Restoring confidence: To restore capital mobility and efficient allocation of savings, confidence in the solvency of borrowers must be restored.
• Role of fiscal rules: Even in the absence of federalism, compliance with fiscal rules can help restore this confidence, facilitating the return of capital flows within the euro zone.

Key Information

• Fiscal rules are not strictly necessary in the non-federalist model, but they can be beneficial in restoring confidence and capital mobility.
• Germany and Northern euro-zone countries are more inclined to follow strict fiscal policy rules.
• Capital mobility has disappeared in the euro zone, with savings from surplus countries being redirected to the global market.
• Charts 1A, 1B, 2A, 2B, and 3 illustrate the current fiscal and debt positions of euro-zone countries, highlighting the divergence from equilibrium and the lack of debt reduction.
• Chart 4 shows the shift in capital flows from within the euro zone to the rest of the world.

Conclusion

• Theoretical stance: Fiscal rules are not required unless the euro zone moves toward federalism.
• Practical stance: To restore capital mobility and confidence in fiscal solvency, fiscal rules may still be necessary even without federalism.
• Recommendation: The euro zone should consider moving beyond purely theoretical models and implementing fiscal rules to ensure stability and efficient resource allocation.

Disclaimer Highlights

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• Confidentiality: It is strictly confidential and cannot be disclosed to third parties without prior consent.
• No personalized recommendation: It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability: Natixis and its affiliates are not liable for the content or any actions based on it.
• Regulatory compliance: The document is subject to various regulatory requirements in different jurisdictions, including the European Central Bank (ECB), ACPR, FCA, BaFin, and others.
• No financial analysis: It is not a financial analysis and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements for independent investment research.

Legal and Regulatory Notes

• Natixis is authorized and regulated in multiple countries, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Dubai.
• The document is not for retail investors in many jurisdictions.
• No guarantee of outcomes: The information is based on public data and does not represent a complete analysis or guarantee future results.
• Author's views: The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ from those of Natixis or other affiliated entities.