那提西银行-欧洲-宏观经济-西班牙能否成为核心欧元区国家？-20180509-9页_770kb

Flash Economics: Could Spain Become a Core Euro-Zone Country?

Core Content Summary

This document evaluates whether Spain has the potential to transition from a peripheral to a core country within the Euro-Zone, based on a comprehensive analysis of 12 economic and financial criteria. It compares Spain with Germany, France, and Italy, focusing on growth, public finances, banking sector health, private-sector debt, cost competitiveness, trade balance, and corporate investment and modernisation.

Main Findings

• Financial Markets Recognition: The financial markets have acknowledged significant improvements in Spain's economic and financial conditions, particularly reflected in the marked tightening of its yield spread with Germany and France since 2017.

• Growth Performance:

  • Short-term growth: Spain's short-term growth is stronger than that of the other countries.
  • Long-term growth: Spain's long-term potential growth remains low, primarily due to a shrinking labour force rather than inefficiencies in productivity.

• Public Finances:

  • Spain's fiscal solvency has been ensured since 2017.
  • It has greater fiscal flexibility compared to France and Italy.

• Banks and Private-Sector Borrowers:

  • Spanish banks have significantly reduced their non-performing loans (NPLs), though they remain higher than those of Germany and France.
  • Household and corporate debt ratios have declined, but they are still above the levels in other core countries.

• Cost Competitiveness and Trade:

  • Spain has demonstrated strong cost competitiveness, with a rising export market share.
  • It has achieved a significant trade surplus in goods and services.

• Corporate Investment and Modernisation:

  • There has been a notable increase in productive investment and industrial automation in Spain since 2012.
  • The level of industrial automation in Spain is now comparable to that of Germany and France.

Key Criteria for Core Country Status

Conclusion

Spain shows significant progress across most of the 12 criteria evaluated, with nine being compatible with core euro-zone status. However, three key areas—structural unemployment, banks' situation, and household and corporate debt ratios—remain problematic. These factors indicate that Spain still has challenges in becoming a core country, although its recent economic performance suggests a positive trajectory.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared with third parties without prior consent from Natixis.
• The information is for general distribution and not a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or relevance of the information.
• The views expressed are personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the views of Natixis or its affiliates.
• The document is not subject to legal requirements promoting the independence of investment research.
• The views may be changed or withdrawn at any time without notice.
• The stock recommendations may be subject to specific disclaimers, which can be found at the provided link.

Regulatory Information

• Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB).
• In France, it is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the AMF.
• In Italy, it is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Bank of Italy and CONSOB.
• In the UK, it is regulated by the FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority.
• In Germany, it is authorized by the ACPR and supervised by BaFin.
• In Dubai, it is authorized by the DFSA and operates under the DIFC framework.

The document does not constitute a financial analysis and is not intended for retail investors.