那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-亚洲周期是否与美国和欧元区周期相关？-20180504-9页_923kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document analyzes the correlation between the economic cycles of Asian countries (China, Japan, India, and other Asian emerging countries) and those of the United States and the euro zone, focusing on trade and financial linkages. It concludes that, despite historical correlations, the economic cycles of Asian countries have become decorrelated from those of the US and euro zone in the period 2010–2017.

Main Points

1. Economic Cycle Correlation

• Historical Correlation: Only Japan's economic cycle was historically correlated with that of the US and euro zone.
• Recent Period (2010–2017): The economic cycles of Asian countries, including China and India, have become decorrelated from those of the US and euro zone.
• Correlation Table (Table 1):
  • 1998–2009:
    • China: 0.12 with US + Euro zone
    • Japan: 0.78 with US + Euro zone
    • Asian emerging countries: 0.04 with US + Euro zone
  • 1998–2017:
    • China: 0.11 with US + Euro zone
    • Japan: 0.64 with US + Euro zone
    • Asian emerging countries: 0.07 with US + Euro zone
  • 2010–2017:
    • China: -0.02 with US + Euro zone
    • Japan: 0.19 with US + Euro zone
    • Asian emerging countries: 0.37 with US + Euro zone

2. Trade Shocks Transmission

• Trade Volume: Asian exports to the US and euro zone are significant in relation to their GDP (3% to 5%).
• Shock Transmission: Despite the size of trade, the correlation between cycles has weakened, indicating that trade alone is no longer sufficient to transmit shocks effectively.

3. Financial Market Correlation

• Interest Rates: Correlations between long-term interest rates in Asia and the US + Euro zone are weak (Table 2A).
• Stock Markets:
  • Correlation between US + Euro zone and China/India is weak.
  • Correlation between US + Euro zone and Japan remains strong.
  • Correlation between US + Euro zone and Asian emerging countries (excluding China and India) is moderate.

4. Capital Flows and Exchange Rates

• China: Capital flows are not linked to US or Euro zone conditions, but rather to internal controls.
• India and Other Asian Emerging Countries: Capital flows have a clear impact on exchange rates.
• Japan: Capital flows do not significantly influence exchange rates.

Key Information

• Trade Impact: While Asian countries export a large portion of their GDP to the US and Euro zone, this does not translate into a strong economic cycle correlation in recent years.
• Financial Transmission: Financial markets in Asia show weak correlation with those in the US and Euro zone, particularly in terms of interest rates and stock prices.
• Capital Flows: Capital flows play a more significant role in exchange rate determination for India and other Asian emerging countries than for Japan.
• Conclusion: The economic cycles of Asian countries, particularly China and India, have become decorrelated from those of the US and Euro zone, despite their trade and financial ties.

Summary of Findings

• Economic Cycles: Asian countries, especially China and India, are now less correlated with the US and Euro zone than in previous periods.
• Trade Linkages: Trade volumes remain significant, but they are not enough to sustain strong cycle correlation.
• Financial Linkages: Financial market correlations are weak for most Asian countries, except for Japan.
• Capital Flows: Capital flows significantly affect exchange rates in India and other Asian emerging countries, but not in Japan.

Conclusion

The document concludes that, despite strong trade and financial linkages, the economic cycles of Asian countries and the US and Euro zone have become decorrelated in the recent period (2010–2017). This suggests a shift in the relationship between these regions, likely due to changes in trade dynamics, financial market behavior, and capital flow patterns.

Disclaimer Highlights

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is confidential and cannot be disclosed to third parties without prior consent.
• It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and may differ.
• The document is not subject to legal requirements promoting investment research independence.