那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-生产力增长与“耐心理论”-20171206-5页_508kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the "patience theory" in the context of productivity gains and potential growth in OECD countries, including the United States, the euro zone, the United Kingdom, and Japan. It evaluates the implications of this theory on financial markets, particularly long-term interest rates and equity valuations.

Main Points

1. The Patience Theory

• The "patience theory" suggests that new technologies and the digital economy take time to translate into productivity gains.
• This delay is attributed to the need for corporate restructuring and large-scale production to realize the benefits of innovation.
• Historical examples include the first industrial revolution (steam engine) and the second (electric motor), where productivity gains followed a period of adjustment.

2. Evidence of Declining Productivity

• Despite advancements in NTIC investment (Chart 1) and industrial robot adoption (Table 2), labour productivity gains (Chart 2) and total factor productivity growth (Chart 3) have continued to decline.
• This indicates that the effects of digital and technological innovations have not yet materialized into broader economic productivity improvements.

3. Implications for Financial Markets

• If the patience theory is correct:

  • Productivity gains and potential growth will eventually rise.
  • Long-term interest rates are currently too low, as they should reflect the expected higher future growth.
  • Equity valuations are justified due to the anticipated growth acceleration.

• If the patience theory is incorrect:

  • Productivity gains and potential growth will remain low.
  • Low long-term interest rates are appropriate.
  • Equity valuations are overestimated and may correct downwards.

4. Conclusion

• Regardless of whether the patience theory is right or wrong, one of the financial markets (either interest rates or equity valuations) will experience a valuation anomaly.
• The equity market may be fairly valued or overvalued, while long-term interest rates may be too low or appropriately set.
• In either scenario, a correction is expected in one of the markets.

Key Information

• OECD countries are the focus of the analysis.
• NTIC investment and industrial robot stock are used as indicators of technological progress.
• The patience theory is a widely accepted view among economists and historians.
• The valuation of equity and interest rates depends on the validity of the patience theory.
• No personalized investment recommendations are made; the document is for professional and qualified investors only.

Summary

The "patience theory" posits that technological innovations, including those in the digital economy, require time to influence productivity and growth. The document highlights that, despite significant investment in technology and automation, productivity gains in OECD countries have not yet materialized. This leads to two potential scenarios:

• If the theory holds, productivity and growth will eventually increase, which would justify higher equity valuations and lower long-term interest rates.
• If the theory is false, productivity and growth will remain low, making current equity valuations too high and interest rates appropriately low.

In either case, one of the markets will face a correction, underscoring the importance of understanding the long-term impact of technological change. The document serves as an economic analysis and is not a financial recommendation, intended only for qualified professionals.