那提西银行-欧洲-宏观经济-现在是否存在与外围欧元区相关的风险-20180514-8页_736kb

Flash Economics Summary: Risk of Another Crisis in the Peripheral Euro-Zone

Core Content

This document analyzes the current economic and financial situation of the peripheral euro-zone countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece) and evaluates the risk of another crisis similar to the one experienced from 2008 to 2014. It provides a comprehensive overview of key indicators such as short-term and long-term growth, current-account balance, public finances, bank stability, and financial imbalances.

Main Points of Analysis

1. Short-term Growth

• There has been a marked improvement in short-term growth since 2014-2015.
• Chart 2A shows real GDP growth, indicating positive trends.
• Chart 2B highlights a rise in real productive investment.
• Unemployment has decreased, and economic activity is recovering.

2. Long-term Growth

• Labour productivity remains low, but total factor productivity is improving.
• The long-term growth potential is still limited, but not as dire as during the previous crisis.

3. Current-account Balance and Financial Dependence

• The peripheral countries' capacity to borrow has diminished, and their external deficit has been reduced.
• Chart 4A and Chart 4B show a significant improvement in current-account balance and external debt.
• Table 1 indicates a marked decrease in the share of government bonds held by non-residents, suggesting reduced reliance on foreign capital.

4. Public Finances

• Fiscal deficits have been controlled, and the public debt ratio is stable.
• Chart 5 demonstrates that these countries have maintained fiscal stability since 2016-2017.

5. Bank Situation

• Non-performing loans are still high, but they have been reducing over time.
• Chart 1E shows the size of non-performing loans.
• Chart 6 indicates that profitability has improved and capital levels are significant, although challenges remain.

6. Financial Imbalances

• Real estate prices remain lower than in 2007, reflecting a correction from previous overvaluation.
• Household and corporate debt ratios have fallen sharply, indicating a reduction in financial stress.
• Chart 7A and Chart 7B support this trend of improved financial stability.

Key Findings

• Overall Improvement: All the examined criteria show marked improvement compared to the crisis years of 2008-2014.
• Remaining Risks:
  • Labour productivity is still growing slowly.
  • Non-performing loans remain high, although decreasing.
  • Private sector debt and real estate prices are still considered dangerous, but not at the same level as before.
• Public finances are stable, and financial dependence on non-residents has decreased significantly.
• No immediate crisis is expected, but long-term structural issues persist.

Conclusion

The risk of another crisis in the peripheral euro-zone countries is lower than during 2008-2014, but not entirely absent. While there has been substantial progress in most economic and financial indicators, certain structural challenges such as low productivity and high non-performing loans still pose risks. The situation is improving, but careful monitoring is still necessary to prevent a recurrence of previous economic distress.

Disclaimer Highlights

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors.
• It is strictly confidential and not a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the information.
• The views expressed are personal and may differ from those of other analysts or subsidiaries.
• Regulatory compliance is noted across various jurisdictions, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Dubai.