那提西银行-欧洲-宏观经济-是什么导致欧元区的周期性衰退？-20180607-8页_677kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary: Cyclical Downturn in the Euro Zone

Core Content

This document analyzes the cyclical downturn in the euro zone, focusing on its causes and contributing factors. It provides an overview of economic indicators and policy effects that have been identified as playing a role in the slowdown.

Main Causes of the Cyclical Downturn

The following factors are identified as contributing to the cyclical downturn in the euro zone:

Slowdown in global trade:
Global trade volumes and values (excluding energy) have slowed, and euro-zone exports have also declined in early 2018. This is attributed to the world economy returning to full employment, which may reduce growth momentum.
Reduced effectiveness of monetary policy:
Despite expansionary monetary policy since 2014, its ability to stimulate credit and demand appears to have diminished. Credit growth has slowed, the household savings rate has halted its decline, and housing investment has also slowed.
Downturn in the investment cycle:
Corporate investment in the euro zone peaked in 2015–2016, and has since declined. This investment cycle is a key driver of the overall economic cycle.
Growing recruitment difficulties:
Companies are facing significant challenges in hiring, even though the unemployment rate remains relatively high. This can lead to reduced employment and slower economic growth.
Slowdown in real wages:
The rise in oil prices has led to increased headline inflation, which has suppressed real wage growth. This has a direct impact on consumer spending and overall economic activity.

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy is not a primary cause:
Contrary to expectations, fiscal policy in the euro zone has become more expansionary in recent periods, indicating it is not a major contributor to the current downturn.

Economic Indicators

PMI (Chart 1): Indicates the economic cycle has peaked and is now in a downturn.
Durable goods orders and household confidence (Charts 2A, B, C): Confirm the slowdown in economic activity.
Global trade and exports (Charts 3A, 3B): Show a decline in both global and euro-zone trade.
Unemployment rate (Chart 3C): Reflects the world economy approaching full employment.
Credit and savings (Charts 4B, 4C, 4D, 4E): Highlight the reduced effectiveness of monetary policy.
Investment (Chart 5): Shows a peak in corporate investment around 2015–2016.
Real wages (Charts 8B, 8C): Demonstrate a slowdown in real wage growth due to inflationary pressures.

Conclusion

The cyclical downturn in the euro zone is explained by a combination of the following factors:

A slowdown in global trade
Reduced effectiveness of monetary policy
A downturn in the corporate investment cycle
Significant hiring difficulties
A slowdown in real wage growth

Fiscal policy, contrary to expectations, has not contributed significantly to this downturn.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

This document is intended for professional and qualified investors only and is strictly confidential.
It does not constitute a financial analysis or investment recommendation.
Natixis does not accept liability for the distribution or use of the document.
The information is based on public data and is not a complete analysis of all material facts.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Natixis or any other entity.
The document is subject to various legal and regulatory restrictions depending on the jurisdiction.

Regulatory Information

Supervision: By the European Central Bank (ECB).
Authorization and Regulation:
- In France: By the ACPR.
- In Italy: By the Bank of Italy and CONSOB.
- In Spain: By the Bank of Spain and CNMV.
- In the UK: By the FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority.
- In Germany: By the ACPR and BaFin.
- In Dubai: By the DFSA.
- In Australia: Through a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Ltd, authorized by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission.
- In Canada: Not registered as a dealer, limited to permitted clients.
- In Hong Kong: For professional investors only.