那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-欧元区的财政偿付能力是否强劲？-20180116-8页_621kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary: Fiscal Solvency in the Euro Zone

Core Content

This document evaluates the fiscal solvency of several countries and the euro zone as a whole, focusing on the robustness of fiscal solvency under two key scenarios:

Growth returning to potential growth
Normalisation of long-term interest rates

The analysis is based on the year 2017, using economic indicators such as unemployment rates, real GDP, potential growth, and public debt ratios. The goal is to determine whether fiscal solvency would remain intact if these two economic conditions were to change.

Current State of Fiscal Solvency (2017)

Germany and the euro zone as a whole: Fiscal solvency was comfortably ensured.
Spain, Italy, and the euro zone without Germany: Fiscal solvency was ensured.
France: Fiscal solvency was not ensured.

These conclusions are supported by charts that compare real GDP, potential growth, and public debt ratios across the countries.

Robustness of Fiscal Solvency

1. Growth Returning to Potential Growth

When the unemployment rate returns to the structural unemployment rate, growth reverts to potential growth, which reduces the fiscal deficit that stabilises the public debt ratio. This is calculated by replacing current growth with potential growth while keeping the inflation rate constant.

Germany: 1.1 pp reduction in fiscal deficit
France: 1.2 pp reduction
Spain: 3.0 pp reduction
Italy: 1.1 pp reduction
Euro zone: 1.3 pp reduction
Euro zone without Germany: 1.5 pp reduction

2. Normalisation of Long-Term Interest Rates

When long-term interest rates return to their normal levels, the debt interest payments increase, leading to a higher fiscal deficit. This is based on the assumption that the normalised interest rate is higher than the current apparent interest rate on public debt.

Germany: 0.8 pp increase
France: 1.2 pp increase
Spain: 1.7 pp increase
Italy: 0 pp increase
Euro zone: 1.1 pp increase
Euro zone without Germany: 1.2 pp increase

Combined Impact on Fiscal Solvency

The combined effect of the two adjustments (fall in fiscal deficit due to growth returning to potential and rise in fiscal deficit due to interest rate normalisation) results in the following changes to the fiscal deficit that stabilises the public debt ratio:

Germany: -1.9 pp (fiscal solvency remains ensured)
France: -2.4 pp (fiscal solvency remains ensured)
Spain: -4.7 pp (fiscal solvency is not ensured)
Italy: -1.1 pp (fiscal solvency remains ensured)
Euro zone: -2.4 pp (fiscal solvency remains ensured)
Euro zone without Germany: -2.7 pp (fiscal solvency is not ensured)

Conclusion: Fiscal solvency remains robust only in Germany in 2017 under these two scenarios.

Key Findings

Germany is the only country where fiscal solvency is robust under both scenarios.
Spain shows the largest vulnerability, with a 4.7 pp reduction in the fiscal deficit that stabilises the public debt ratio.
France and the euro zone without Germany are also vulnerable, though less so than Spain.
Italy and the euro zone as a whole maintain fiscal solvency under both conditions.
The analysis highlights the importance of growth and interest rates in determining fiscal solvency.

Disclaimer Highlights

The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared with third parties without consent.
No personalized investment recommendations are made.
No liability is accepted for the information provided.
The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ from those of Natixis or other entities.
Regulatory compliance is emphasized, with specific mentions of supervision by the ECB, ACPR, AMF, FCA, and DFSA.