期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1990_56页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Fall 1990

Core Content

The Fall 1990 issue of the NBER Reporter focuses on the NBER Project on Economic Growth, highlighting recent theoretical and empirical advancements in understanding long-run economic growth. The report outlines key findings from studies on growth determinants, including the role of policy, savings, education, and market structures. It also discusses the structure of corporate finance in the U.S. and Japan, emphasizing the differences in financial systems and their implications for investment behavior.

Main Views and Key Information

Theoretical and Empirical Work on Economic Growth

• Historical Context: In the 1950s and 1960s, economists were deeply interested in long-run growth, influenced by Robert Solow's work on dynamic models and growth accounting.
• Shift in Focus: By the 1970s, theoretical and empirical work on growth diverged, leading to a decline in professional interest, despite the importance of the topic.
• NBER Growth Project: Launched two years prior, the project aims to bridge the gap between theory and evidence.

Empirical Findings

• Convergence of Income Per Capita: Poor countries tend to grow faster than richer ones, but convergence is not always observed, suggesting the presence of other factors.
• Correlation Between Savings and Growth: The correlation is attributed not only to technological change but also to policy and behavioral variables.
• Key Variables: Higher investment (private or public), lower government consumption, higher education enrollment, political stability, and lower fertility rates are associated with faster growth.
• Regional Convergence in the U.S.: Barro and Sala-i-Martin found evidence of income convergence in U.S. regions over the past 150 years.

Theoretical Models

• Perfect Markets Models: These models assume that technological change is endogenous and influenced by human capital, investment, and preferences. They show that even fixed factors like labor can contribute to growth.
• External Effects Models: These models incorporate knowledge spillovers and external increasing returns, where ideas and innovations can benefit multiple parties. Examples include:
  • Arrow's Learning-by-Doing: Discoveries are unintended by-products of other activities and freely exploited.
  • Romer's Model: Ideas are not rivalrous or excludable, leading to non-convex technologies.
  • Stokey's Model: Focuses on the relationship between education, product quality, and growth.
• Market Power Models: Emphasize the role of market power and R&D in innovation. These models move away from perfect price-taking assumptions and consider the importance of intellectual property rights and monopolistic profits.

Policy Implications

• Policy Influence: All endogenous growth models suggest that policy choices significantly affect long-term growth.
• Key Policies:
  • Support for education
  • Incentives for physical capital investment
  • Protection of intellectual property rights
  • Support for R&D
  • International trade policies that encourage idea transmission
  • Avoidance of large government distortions in markets
• Specific Policy Effects: Tax policies, resource allocation, and market regulations can have large impacts on growth and welfare.

U.S.-Japanese Corporate Finance

Investment Differences

• Japanese Investment Outperformance: Japanese corporate investment has historically been higher than U.S. investment.
• Cost of Capital: Some argue that lower capital costs in Japan explain this trend, due to lower interest rates and higher stock prices.
• Structural Differences:
  • Japanese firms have higher debt-equity ratios.
  • Japanese corporate debt is largely short-term bank loans, while U.S. debt is more diversified.
  • Japanese firms are less likely to file for bankruptcy due to stronger financial support systems.

Keiretsu and Relationship Banking

• Keiretsu Structure: A network of companies and financial institutions that supports investment through:
  • Liquidity Access: Firms with strong keiretsu ties have easier access to capital.
  • Financial Distress Mitigation: Close relationships with main banks and keiretsu networks reduce the costs of financial distress and encourage investment even during crises.

Empirical Evidence

• Investment Behavior: After financial distress, keiretsu firms invest significantly more than unaffiliated firms.
• Liquidity Constraints: Independent firms are more liquidity-constrained, while keiretsu firms are not.
• Bankruptcy Systems: Japanese firms often resolve financial distress outside of formal bankruptcy courts, while U.S. firms rely more on court mechanisms.

Project Activities

• Research Meetings: The NBER Growth Project organizes regular meetings to foster interaction between theory and empirical work, typically in fall or spring.
• Data Sharing: The project maintains and distributes datasets, including the Penn World Table, to support replication and further research.
• Publications: Research from these meetings is planned for publication in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Conclusions

• Policy Matters: Theoretical and empirical work confirms that policy plays a crucial role in determining long-term growth.
• Future Research: Ongoing efforts aim to refine policy recommendations and quantify their effects.
• Objective: The ultimate goal is to provide reliable answers to the question of what determines the wealth of nations.

References

• Solow (1956, 1957): Pioneered growth theory.
• Romer (1986, 1987): Developed endogenous growth models with external effects.
• Barro (1986, 1990): Examined convergence and the role of education and policy.
• Becker, Murphy, and Tamura (1990): Explored the link between human capital, fertility, and growth.
• King and Rebelo (1989, 1990): Analyzed the role of policy and external effects in growth.
• Stokey (1990): Focused on knowledge spillovers and trade implications.
• Benhabib and Jovanovic (1989): Showed that growth correlations can arise from internal shocks, not external effects.
• Scharfstein (1990): Analyzed the structural differences in U.S. and Japanese corporate finance.