期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1987_56页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary: Fall 1987

Core Content

The Fall 1987 issue of the NBER Reporter provides a comprehensive overview of the research and activities of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Program in Taxation over the past two years. It highlights contributions to tax reform, the role of taxation in corporate investment and finance, state and local public finance, international tax policy, and other related economic research.

Main Research Areas

Tax Reform

• Personnel Contributions: Charles E. McLure, Jr., and Don Fullerton played a key role in the U.S. Treasury's Tax Reform Act of 1986, using their expertise to estimate effective tax rates and analyze the implications of the reform.
• Modeling Tax Effects: Fullerton expanded his model to include noncorporate sectors and housing, incorporating federal, state, and local taxes. He concluded that the lower tax rates in the new law reduce nonneutralities from mismeasured depreciation and interest deductions.
• General Equilibrium Analysis: Fullerton and Yolanda K. Henderson introduced effective marginal tax rates into a general equilibrium model, showing that capital misallocation due to tax reforms causes productivity losses.
• Capital Gains and Tax Law Changes: Goulder and Summers found that different asset categories experience varied price changes and adjustment periods under the new tax rules.
• Taxpayer Behavior: Lindsey used actual tax return data to show that changes in the 1981 tax law were partially offset by taxpayer behavior adjustments, with significant effects on capital gains.
• Marriage Penalty: Rosen found that the 1986 tax reform could impose a marriage tax penalty of up to 10% of joint income for low-income couples.
• Labor Supply and Savings: Hausman and Poterba noted that 41% of taxpayers would face higher or equal marginal tax rates under the new law, leading to only minor changes in labor supply and savings.
• Uncertainty and Welfare: Skinner emphasized that uncertainty about future tax policy creates a welfare loss equivalent to 0.4% of national income.

Social Security

• Payroll Tax and Deadweight Loss: Auerbach and Kotlikoff argued that the payroll tax may double the deadweight loss from income tax due to its distorting effect.
• Intergenerational Transfers: Kotlikoff, Boskin, and others found that Social Security benefits and taxes vary significantly across households, with real internal rates of return ranging from negative to 6.6%.
• Earnings and Benefits: The model suggests that the link between current earnings and future benefits influences behavior, and that increased benefits for the elderly may reduce their relative earnings.
• Redistribution and Bequests: The dynastic family model, which assumes intergenerational altruism, was challenged by several researchers who found that government policy has limited impact on consumption due to behavioral and structural factors.

Corporate Investment and Finance

• Mergers and Acquisitions: Auerbach and Reishus found that unused tax losses and credits could provide a potential gain in about 20% of mergers, but the 1986 tax reform had a minimal impact on U.S. M&A activity.
• Dividend Payments and Share Repurchases: Shoven and others explored the shift from dividends to share repurchases, noting that the latter allows for capital gains treatment and has increased in prevalence.
• Tax Asymmetries: Auerbach, Poterba, and Myers emphasized the importance of tax asymmetries in influencing corporate investment decisions, particularly through provisions like accelerated depreciation.

State and Local Public Finance

• State Income Taxes: Research focused on the structure of state income taxes, their relationship with federal taxes, and the impact of tax indexing.
• Redistributive Capacity: Studies examined the ability of states to redistribute income through taxation.
• Tax Deductibility: Feenberg, Feldstein, Rosen, Inman, and Holtz-Eakin found that state and local governments tend to favor tax instruments that are deductible at the federal level.

Taxes in the International Economy

• Capital Mobility: The Bureau began a project on international tax policy, emphasizing the role of capital mobility in open economies.
• Tax Rates and Capital Flows: Gordon and Varian showed that tax policies may lead to specialization in domestic securities and restrictions on capital flows.
• International Competitiveness: Summers highlighted the need to analyze tax policy in an open economy context, noting that tax policies affect trade balances and competitiveness.

Key Information

• The Program in Taxation produced 128 Working Papers, several NBER books, and a new Taxation Annual in the past two years.
• TAXSIM model was used by multiple researchers to analyze the effects of tax changes on individual and household behavior.
• General equilibrium models were central to understanding the broader economic impacts of tax reforms.
• The 1986 Tax Reform Act had mixed effects: it reduced the burden on existing capital but increased the burden on new capital, with varying impacts across asset classes.
• Social Security was a major focus, with discussions on its financial sustainability, the role of intergenerational transfers, and the effects of smoking on future benefits.
• Capital market imperfections were found to significantly affect tax policy outcomes, challenging traditional assumptions of perfect capital markets.
• Immigration research highlighted the significant number of legal and illegal immigrants, and their impact on the labor market, particularly on the employment and earnings of the elderly and married couples.

Structure and Organization

The NBER Reporter includes:

• A Program Report on Taxation.
• Research Summaries on Immigration, Consumption in the Business Cycle, and other topics.
• Economic Outlook Survey.
• NBER Profiles and Conference Calendar.
• Bureau News and Books.
• Current Working Papers with references to key studies.

Conclusion

The 1987 issue of the NBER Reporter reflects the Program in Taxation's broad and deep engagement with tax policy and its economic implications. It covers both theoretical and empirical analyses, with a focus on the effects of the 1986 Tax Reform Act, the role of taxation in corporate behavior, and the broader implications for public finance and international economics.