期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-fall2002_40页_456kb

NBER Labor Studies Summary (Fall 2002)

Core Content

The NBER Labor Studies Program has experienced significant growth since the late 1990s, producing an average of over 103 papers per year from 1999 to 2001, with an expected 120-130 papers in 2002. This expansion reflects not only an increase in the number of researchers but also the inclusion of new programs such as the Program on Children, Working Group on Higher Education, and Project on the Science Work Force. These initiatives involve labor-oriented specialists and expand the scope of labor market research beyond traditional boundaries.

The program also explores labor markets in international contexts, analyzing how labor institutions affect inequality and employment. Researchers compare labor market outcomes across countries and use cross-country data to understand the effectiveness of labor policies. The central theme is that labor market institutions play a crucial role in shaping economic outcomes and must be considered in any empirical analysis.

Main Topics and Ideas

1. Education and Labor Market Outcomes

• A large body of research focuses on the economic impact of education, including returns to education, effects on crime, and the role of education in labor market outcomes.
• Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti found a strong negative link between education and crime, suggesting that education can increase social returns to schooling.
• Ronald Ehrenberg studied how collective bargaining affects faculty salaries in higher education and how college rankings influence student recruitment.
• Kerwin Charles and Ming-Ching Luoh examined the earnings dispersion among graduates and argued that future earnings expectations help explain the increasing proportion of women in higher education.
• Joshua Angrist and Victor Lavy found that classroom computers in Israel had little effect on educational performance, while grading standards improved achievement but reduced attainment.
• Peter Temin and Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz analyzed the long-term impact of education on inequality and economic development, emphasizing the role of social capital in the expansion of secondary education in the U.S.

2. International Labor Market Comparisons

• NBER researchers have studied labor markets in Britain, Germany, Japan, Latin America, and Canada to understand the strengths and weaknesses of different institutions.
• Card and Freeman (with Blundell) found that the Thatcher reforms increased market freedoms and improved employment rates, but also led to higher inequality in the U.K.
• Steven Davis examined wage compression in Sweden and proposed a search equilibrium model to explain how centralized bargaining affects productivity and welfare.
• Marianne Bertrand and Francis Kramarz found that entry regulation in the French retail sector reduced employment by about 10%.
• Nina Pavcnik showed that rice price increases in Vietnam reduced child labor.

3. Social Policies and Labor Supply Responses

• Research has focused on how social policies such as Moving-to Opportunity and GI benefits affect labor supply and educational attainment.
• Katz, Kling, and Liebman found that the Moving-to Opportunity program improved children's social behavior but had no effect on parental labor market performance.
• Bound and Turner found that GI benefits positively impacted the educational attainment of non-Southern black men, but not Southern black GIs.
• Jonathan Guryan showed that school desegregation reduced dropout rates for black students, with peer effects playing a role in this outcome.
• Krueger and Meyer found that labor supply elasticities incorporating unemployment insurance and workers' compensation are higher than those typically found in wage or tax studies.
• Jon Gruber and Brigitte Madrian found that health insurance is a key determinant of retirement decisions, while the labor supply of secondary earners affects job mobility but not welfare exit decisions for low-income mothers.

4. Econometric Tools and Methodologies

• There has been a growing interest in using regression discontinuity models and natural experiments to analyze labor market outcomes.
• Bertrand, Duflo, and Mullainathan found that serial correlation in outcome variables can severely bias difference-in-difference estimates.
• Alvin Roth and co-authors have used matching markets and natural experiments to analyze labor market mechanisms, including physician matching and gastroenterologist markets.

5. Mandated Wage Floors

• Research on minimum wages and living wage laws has focused on their impact on employment and poverty reduction.
• David Neumark argues that minimum wages may not be effective in raising incomes of low-wage workers or poor families, as they can lead to reduced employment and less training.
• The estimated employment elasticities for minimum wages range from -0.1 to -0.2, with teenagers showing the smallest effect.
• Living wage laws have shown larger wage effects, with elasticities around 0.07 for the bottom tenth of the wage distribution.
• However, the disemployment effects of living wage laws are less clear and often weaker than the wage gains, especially when coverage is broader.

Key Figures and Contributions

• Richard Freeman is the Director of the NBER's Labor Studies Program and has been instrumental in shaping its research agenda.
• James Heckman received the Nobel Prize in economics, highlighting his contributions to labor economics and econometrics.
• Sherwin Rosen was a notable economist who passed away in 2001, known for his work on labor markets in professional sports.

Conclusion

The NBER Labor Studies Program has expanded significantly in recent years, both in terms of research output and scope. It continues to explore education's role in labor markets, international labor institutions, social policies, and the impact of mandated wage floors on poverty and inequality. The research highlights the complexity of labor market dynamics and the importance of empirical evidence in shaping policy decisions.