深度报告-2025-09-01-亚开行-2025年亚洲不良贷款观察（英）页_76页_6mb

Summary of NONPERFORMING LOANS WATCH IN ASIA 2025

Core Content

The Nonperforming Loans (NPL) Watch in Asia 2025 report, published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in collaboration with the International Public Asset Management Companies Forum (IPAF), provides an in-depth analysis of NPL trends, resolution mechanisms, and market development across Asia. It highlights the progress made in NPL management, ongoing challenges, and the role of asset management companies (AMCs) in shaping the region's financial resilience.

Main Points

NPL Trends in 2024

• Total NPL volume in Asia reached $700.19 billion in 2024, a marginal decrease from $713.34 billion in 2023.
• NPL ratios continued to decline, reaching 1.6% in 2024 from 1.7% in 2023.
• East Asia remained the largest contributor to NPL volume, accounting for 74.3% of the regional total.
• China was the largest single contributor with $449.25 billion in NPLs, representing 62.5% of the total regional NPL volume and 86.3% of East Asia's NPLs.
• Japan and Republic of Korea also contributed significantly, with NPL volumes of $63.14 billion and $7.41 billion, respectively.
• Southeast Asia saw a decline in NPL volumes, while South Asia and Central Asia experienced more pronounced increases, driven by loan book expansion and structural challenges.

Credit Stress and Sectoral Vulnerabilities

• Signs of credit stress are accelerating in real estate, SMEs, and retail credit sectors.
• NPL growth is expected to be concentrated in construction, consumer finance, and some state-owned enterprises through 2027.
• Credit risks remain sector-specific rather than systemic.

Role of AMCs

• AMCs are central to NPL resolution and market development.
• The Republic of Korea's KAMCO has set a regional benchmark with its advanced digital servicing platform, OnBid.
• China's national and regional AMCs, such as Zhejiang Zheshang Asset Management Co., Ltd. (ZSAMC), have significantly increased market liquidity.
• Viet Nam's VAMC and DATC are expanding secondary market activity.
• AMCs are not only resolution agents but also market enablers, supporting price discovery, transparency, and investor participation.

Challenges in NPL Resolution

• Structural barriers such as pricing gaps, limited investor access, weak enforcement, fragmented data, and regulatory friction continue to hinder market development.
• Digital servicing platforms are emerging but remain underdeveloped in many parts of Asia.
• Public AMCs have partially filled servicing gaps, but the sector is still fragmented and underdeveloped.
• Information asymmetry and data quality issues are major concerns for investors.
• Legal and regulatory inconsistencies complicate cross-border transactions and asset recovery.

Regional Outlook

• Asia's NPL market has shown resilience, with most jurisdictions maintaining stable or improving NPL ratios.
• However, recovery capacity and market depth are uneven, particularly in South Asia and Central Asia, where NPL ratios remain relatively high.
• Postcrisis recovery has been uneven across subregions, with some countries still facing significant vulnerabilities.
• Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could trigger new waves of NPLs, especially in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors.

Future Directions

• The development of specialized platforms and standardized processes is essential for improving market efficiency and transparency.
• Financial technology and blockchain-based solutions offer promising strategies for enhancing transaction transparency and overcoming inefficiencies.
• Regional coordination and institutional strengthening will be key to building a more integrated and resilient NPL market.
• Tailored approaches to NPL management are needed due to the varying economic and regulatory contexts across Asia.

Key Information

• NPL Volume: $700.19 billion in 2024, with notable regional variations.
• NPL Ratio: 1.6% in 2024, down from 1.7% in 2023.
• NPL Coverage Ratio: Calculated as total specific loan loss provisions divided by gross NPLs.
• Net NPL Ratio: Net NPLs divided by total gross loan portfolio.
• Market Share: NPL volume and loan volume are calculated as a percentage of the regional total.
• AMC Models:
  • China: Decentralized AMCs.
  • Republic of Korea: KAMCO as a regional benchmark.
  • Viet Nam: Dual AMC model progressing through restructuring and platform expansion.

Conclusion

The NPL Watch in Asia 2025 report underscores the importance of regulatory coordination, technological innovation, and institutional strengthening in developing a more resilient and efficient NPL market. While progress has been made, structural and operational challenges remain, necessitating continued efforts to enhance market transparency, legal clarity, and investor participation.