20240421-国元证券-通信行业周报_台积电AI相关收入快速增长_GPU产品代际切换或引需求波动_10页_1mb

Communication Industry Weekly Report Summary - April 21, 2024

Market Overview

• From April 15-19, 2024:
  • Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56%, while the venture capital index fell by 0.39%.
  • However, the communication sector (as per Shenwan index) declined by 0.67%.

Sub-sectors Performance

• Different communication sub-sectors showed varying trends:
  • Communication Network Equipment & Devices: Decliined by 0.48%.
  • Communication Engineering & Services: The worst performer, declining by 7%.

Top Performers

• Among all communication stocks, top gainers included:
  • Guangha Communication (+1584%),
  • YiLian Network (+1296%),
  • TaiCheng Light (+103.7%).

Key Developments

1. AI & Chip Demand

• TSMC reported strong AI server processor demand growth.
• CEO Feihsia Yu highlighted that GPUs/CPU/AI accelerators used for AI training and inference could account for 20% of total revenue by 2028.
• TSMC expects AI-related revenue to double in 2024, underpinned by a 50% CAGR over the next five years.

2. Huawei's Satellite Capabilities

• The Huawei Pura 70 Ultra supports satellite messaging with image sending and boasts advanced features like "AptX" for better connectivity in weak-signal scenarios.

3. Technological Innovations

• Recent advancements include 50G PON technology by China Mobile in optical communications.
• Cloud infrastructure services growing (especially among providers like Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud).
• LightCounting indicates ongoing technical debates between PAM4 and DSP technologies in optical modules.

4. Unicorns & Applications

• Low-altitude economy is positioned as a key driver of new productivity, expected to form a trillion-yuan industry.

Investment Recommendations

• Focus on the chip and satellite internet sectors.
• Target stocks include:
  • In computation hardware: Conexant (Nasdaq), Uniphier/Semico;
  • In satellite connectivity: Dexcel Communications (Hang Sang);
  • Tier-1 telcos including China Telecom.

Risks

• Geopolitical factors and market demand volatility remain key concerns.

The ongoing confluence of AI-driven demand in semiconductors and expansion in connectivity technologies points towards continued growth potential in the sector, with tilted performance driven by high-tier firms and satellite segments.