20240712-华安证券-劲仔食品-003000.SZ-劲仔食品2024Q2点评_利润弹性如期兑现_4页_350kb

报告摘要

Summary of Jianzi Food's 2024 Q2 Performance Commentary

Main Points:

Earnings Preview:
- 2024 Q2: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders between RMB 0.59 to 0.76 billion (growth +35% to +73%). Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 0.54 to 0.70 billion (growth +38% to +81%).
- 2024 H1: Projected net profit of RMB 1.33 to 1.50 billion (growth +60%-80%) and GAAP net profit of RMB 1.12-1.29 billion (+56%-79%), aligning with market expectations.
Revenue Analysis:
- Overall revenue growth is steady, with the sardine category maintaining double-digit growth and quail egg production accelerating in the second quarter.
- Offline channels exhibit significant growth with enhanced distribution networks, while the online segment remains stable due to an ongoing adjustment period.
Profit Analysis:
- Profit margins increased in the second quarter due to cost reductions and improved operational efficiency. The net profit margin reached 11.3%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous year.
- Cost-side factors, including lower raw material prices (Quancheggs at -10% YoY due to locked prices) and scale effects, drive the profit growth.
Investment Recommendation:
- Maintain a "Buy" recommendation, supported by solid growth trajectories, expansion into quail egg products, and continuous cost improvements.
- Maintain financial projections for 2024-2026, forecasting significant revenue and profit growth driven by product innovation and market expansion.

Investment Highlights:

Revenue Projections: Anticipated total revenues of RMB 26.53 billion in 2024 (growth +285% YoY)
Profit Growth: Projected net profits of RMB 29.1 billion in 2024 (+391% YoY)
Valuation: Current P/E ratio at 1937x, projected to decrease to 1542x and 1165x by 2026.

Risks:

Subdued demand recovery, intensified competition, and potential food safety issues are noted as key risks.

Summary

Jianzi Food’s second-quarter performance shows robust revenue and profit growth, driven by expansion in quail egg sales and effective cost management. The company is expected to maintain its upward trajectory through product innovation and market reach expansion, supporting its current valuation and Buy recommendation.

中文总结如下（英文翻译）：

总要观点：

业绩预告
- 2024年第二季度：净利润预计0.59-0.76亿元，同比增长35%-73%；扣非净利润0.54-0.70亿元，同比增长38%-81%。
- 2024年上半年：净利润预计13.3-15.0亿元，同比增长60%-80%；扣非净利润预计11.2-12.9亿元，同比增长56%-79%，与市场预期相符。
收入分析
- 整体收入平稳增长，其中鱼干类产品维持双位数增长，鹌鹑蛋在第二季度环比加快放量。
- 线下渠道通过精耕传统市场与提升铺货率，同比增长近30%；线上渠道因调整期影响，预计同比持平。
利润分析
- 第二季度净利润率达11.3%，同比提升2.3个百分点，主要得益于成本下降和规模效益。
- 鳓鱼干原料成本因年初锁价同比下降近10%，而鹌鹑鸡蛋价格上涨被规模效应和提效管理所对冲。
投资建议
- 建议维持“买入”评级。公司增长稳健，通过推出鹌鹑蛋新品类有望提升线上销售；同时成本优化逻辑持续兑现，为盈利创造弹性空间。
- 预计2024-2026年营业收入分别增长至265.3亿、332.5亿和408.9亿元，净利润分别达到291亿、366亿和485亿元，对应当前股价的PE倍数分别为1937、1542和1165倍。