20230628-大越期货-燃料油早报_18页_2mb

报告摘要

Fuel Oil Market Summary - June 28, 2023

Based on the daily report from Dadi Futures, the fuel oil market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak crude oil support and stable fundamentals.

Key Factors

Basis: High-sulphur 380 fuel oil has a backward basis of -14 yuan/ton in Singapore, reflecting limited futures support from spot prices (negative impact).
Inventory: Singapore high-low sulphur fuel oil inventory at 1854 million barrels, down by 127.5% week-over-week (positive impact).
Chart Pattern: Fuel oil prices are trading above the 20-day moving average with an upward trend (positive impact).
Position: Main force long positions are net bullish but have decreased slightly (positive bias mixed with caution).

Market Outlook

Overall view is neutral with short-term expected range-bound movement.
Fundamentals: Weak crude oil volatility reduces support; high-sulphur demand remains strong due to seasonal power generation in Asia and refinery inputs, while low-sulphur demand faces challenges from cheaper alternatives and regional supply issues.
Key drivers include OPEC+ production cuts supporting prices and reduced Russian exports easing Singapore supply pressure; risks involve potential increases in Russian exports or unexpected Fed interest rate hikes worsening volatility.

Risks and Uncertainties

Risks: Exacerbation of global economic uncertainty from Fed policy; possibility of higher Russian high-sulphur fuel oil exports reducing benefits.
Supports: Ongoing OPEC+ commitment to production cuts; sustained demand from electricity generators in the Middle East and South Asia during the heating season.

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