20230616-瑞达期货-液化气市场周报_原油上涨带动_LPG探低回升_19页_1mb

Lpg Market Weekly Summary June 16, 2023

Market Review

Crude oil prices rose due to OPEC cuts and expected Chinese demand growth. Lpg spot prices fell, but lpg futures tested lows and recovered, with pg2309 closing at 3699 rmb/ton, up 151% week-over-week. Key drivers include international crude support and inventory changes.

Market Outlook

Domestic lpg spot remains weak, with imports showing inverted profits and wider pentane-ethane price differences. Supply decreased from refineries, while ports had ample supply. High temperatures in summer are reducing demand during the off-season, though pdh plants are operating at 80%, boosting chemical demand. Easter-end buying provided short-term support, but overall supply-demand dynamics suggest a bearish trend with pdh utilization increases.

Strategy Suggestion

Short-term lpg futures show low volatility, with potential support at 3550 rmb/ton and resistance near the 20-day moving average. Recommendations include trading the 3550-3780 interval for pg2309, focusing on downstream demand and global oil movements.

Key Data Points

• Prices: National lpg market price down 26%, port-specific prices decreased regionally.
• Supply: annual production increased 14.8%, imports surged 38.2% [april data], with import costs falling.
• Inventory: Port inventories rose by 19%, up 500 tons week-over-week.
• Futures: Exchanged open interest increased, net short positions grew by 4,200 hands; cross-month spreads widened.
• Other: Lpg-option implied volatility rose, offering arbitrage opportunities. Stock market's gas sector saw mixed performance, with specific stock movements noted.