20251202-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属日报_下游刚需采购_铅价维持震荡格局_7页_1mb

Lead Market Summary

Market Conditions

• Lead prices maintained a震荡格局 (oscillating pattern) due to downstream mandatory procurement demand, with no significant price changes in spot markets as reported on December 1, 2025. SMM1# lead price remained unchanged at 16975 yuan/ton, and regional prices showed minor variations.

Price and Inventory Data

• Futures: The SHFE lead主力合约 (main contract) experienced daily price oscillation, trading between 17010 and 17175 yuan/ton, with a slight night session increase of 0.45%. Trading volume decreased by 4637 hands, and持仓 (position) reduced by 735 hands.
• Inventory: SMM lead inventory totaled 3.10 million tons (decreased by 0.43万吨/week), while LME lead inventory dropped 2300 tons to 260,875 tons.

Strategy and Outlook

• Absolute price view is neutral, with expected range between 16950 and 17600 yuan/ton. Factors include a double-difficulty supply-demand balance from reduced再生铅 (recycled lead) production and high原生铅 (primary lead) costs, supported by negative processing fees.
• Recommended option strategy: Sell宽跨 (strangle), given price volatility expectations.
• Risks identified include: domestic supply enhancements, weaker-than-expected consumption, and potential overseas liquidity constraints due to import window closure.

Key Risks

• Increased domestic production could pressure prices.
• Consumer demand may underperform expectations.
• Geopolitical tightness in overseas markets could affect global dynamics.