期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2013no1_32页_2mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2013 Number 1

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for 2013 Number 1 highlights the Labor Studies (LS) Program and its contributions to economic research, particularly in the areas of immigration, gender disparities, and unemployment and job displacement. It also includes research summaries on financial crises, the Age of Mass Migration, saving in developing countries, and climate change and biofuel mandates. The report outlines key findings, ongoing research, and policy implications.

Main Themes from the Labor Studies Program

1. Immigration

• Impact on U.S. Workforce: Immigrants have become a significant part of the U.S. science and engineering workforce, especially at the doctoral level, where they account for about half of all newly awarded Ph.D.s.
• Factors Influencing Stay: The U.S. attracts the most talented foreign students due to high program prestige and strong career prospects. Changing economic conditions in sending countries also influence the decision of foreign-born students to stay.
• Economic Effects: Research shows that immigration has had a net positive effect on workers in most OECD countries, though it has contributed to wage inequality in the U.S. and other major countries.
• Language Skills: Language ability is a major factor in the earnings gap between immigrants and natives. In cities with high Spanish-speaking populations, language differences lead to occupational segmentation.
• Competition and Market Dynamics: In places like Puerto Rico, immigrants and natives are in direct labor market competition, highlighting the complexity of immigration's economic impact.

2. Gender Disparities

• Educational Attainment: The gender gap in education has narrowed significantly, with more women pursuing higher education. This has contributed to a decline in occupational segregation.
• Earnings Disparities: Despite increased educational attainment, women are still underrepresented in high-earning fields like engineering, computer science, and economics. These disparities are linked to college major choices.
• Career Progression: The male-female earnings gap widens over time, especially after the completion of a degree. Childbearing is a strong predictor of career interruptions and lower earnings for women.
• Skill Demand Shifts: The decline in demand for manual skills, due to technological changes, has helped reduce the gender wage gap. This is also reflected in the increased hiring of women in certain sectors following NAFTA.

3. Unemployment and Job Displacement

• Great Recession Impact: The Great Recession had a severe impact on labor markets, particularly on men in construction and manufacturing. Long-term unemployment became a defining feature.
• Earnings Losses: Displaced workers, especially those laid off during the Great Recession, experienced significant earnings losses. A typical displaced worker saw a 12% loss in discounted present value of earnings over 20 years, rising to 20% when the unemployment rate exceeded 8%.
• Unemployment Benefits: Extended unemployment benefits had a small effect on increasing the unemployment rate, raising it by at most 0.5 percentage points in December 2010.
• Skill Obsolescence: Workers who are out of work for longer periods are less likely to find new jobs, suggesting a role for skill depreciation in long-term unemployment.
• Policy Implications: The lack of regulatory action due to micro-prudential focus contributed to the financial sector's fragility and the severity of the crisis.

Research Summaries

1. Understanding Financial Crises: Theory and Evidence from the Crisis of 2007-8

• Viral Acharya analyzes the 2007-8 financial crisis as a case study for understanding market failures and regulatory failures.
• Market Failure I: Short-term debt and externalities from financial firm distress can lead to systemic crises. Aggregate shocks and short-term financing can cause disorderly liquidations and debt freezes.
• Regulatory Failures: Regulatory frameworks focused on individual institution safety (micro-prudential) failed to address systemic risk. Basel capital requirements did not account for aggregate risk or rollover risks.
• Market Failures II: Failures in large banks or banking systems have wider economic consequences, including liquidity insurance and funding liquidity effects. Banks actively seek funding liquidity, which can create externality effects on other banks.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization focused on quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• The Labor Studies Program is one of the largest and most active within the NBER, with 150 members and nearly 200 Working Papers annually.
• Immigration research highlights both positive and negative impacts, depending on the context and economic conditions.
• Gender research underscores persistent disparities in earnings and career progression, influenced by educational choices, childbearing, and technological changes.
• Unemployment and job displacement studies show long-term consequences of the Great Recession, including earnings losses and increased unemployment.
• Financial crises are analyzed through market failures and regulatory failures, with a focus on short-term debt, systemic risk, and liquidity dynamics.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter provides a comprehensive overview of ongoing research and policy discussions in the Labor Studies Program and beyond. It emphasizes the complexity of economic issues, from immigration impacts to gender disparities and financial crises, and underscores the importance of macro-prudential regulation and systemic risk management in shaping economic outcomes.