期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2017number1_40页_1mb

NBER Corporate Finance Program Summary

Core Content

The NBER Program on Corporate Finance is a research initiative focused on understanding the financial behavior of individuals, institutions, and markets, and their impact on macroeconomic outcomes. It has evolved significantly since its inception, particularly in response to the 2008 financial crisis, and now emphasizes behavioral aspects, empirical rigor, and the broader implications of financial decisions.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Behavioral Barriers to Education and Financial Decisions

• Behavioral factors play a critical role in shaping financial decisions, especially among unsophisticated households.
• Credit card companies use salient teaser interest rates and hidden back-end fees to influence borrowing behavior.
• Adjustable mortgage rate resets increase liquidity, which in turn reduces default rates, increases new car consumption, and helps credit-constrained households manage debt.
• Investor behavior is often driven by extrapolative expectations, where recent performance influences future risk-taking, even if it is not predictive.
• Financial advisers often fail to de-bias clients, instead encouraging return-chasing and steering them toward high-fee funds.
• Financial literacy education and libertarian paternalism (with carefully chosen defaults) are seen as potential tools to improve decision-making.

2. Corporate Finance and Macroeconomic Policy

• The program has shifted its focus from traditional corporate finance topics (investment and financing) to micro-level financial behavior and its macroeconomic consequences.
• The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the importance of credit cycles, financial institution fragility, and household financial behavior.
• Monetary policy is influenced by household financial decisions, such as borrowing and spending, which are affected by credit availability and interest rates.
• New Keynesian models were found to be inadequate in explaining the crisis due to their lack of explicit financial sector modeling.
• The corporate finance toolkit has been essential in analyzing regulatory interventions like TARP and QE.

3. Institutions and Financial Systems

• Banks and shadow banking systems are central to the study of financial intermediation and risk transformation.
• Banks rely on ultrasafe deposits and short-term liabilities, which are low-cost but lack private monitoring, leading to potential systemic risk.
• Deposit insurance and regulation help mitigate bank runs, but they can also lead to non-core liabilities being used as indicators of vulnerability.
• Shadow banks often engage in risk-taking due to the absence of implicit guarantees, and capital requirements have fueled the growth of the shadow banking system.

4. Markets and Financial Fluctuations

• Credit markets are a key area of focus, with researchers examining the sentiment of investors and the impact of credit availability on economic activity.
• Insurance companies and pension funds are major players in credit markets, often reaching for yield during downturns.
• Equity markets also play a role in financial stability, with investor activism and public equity market dynamics influencing corporate behavior.
• The bank lending channel is an important mechanism for monetary policy, as it affects interest rate spreads and asset allocation.

Key Research Areas and Tools

• Empirical tools include event studies, natural experiments, and randomized controlled trials.
• Structural estimation of theoretical models helps extract macroeconomic implications from micro-level data.
• Behavioral economics has become increasingly important, with a focus on bias, heuristics, and loss aversion.
• Data sources include household financial data, corporate behavior, and market trends.

Impact on Macroeconomics

• The program has contributed to the development of macroeconomic models that incorporate financial frictions and behavioral insights.
• Corporate finance research has enhanced traditional macroeconomic models, especially in understanding credit cycles, bank behavior, and financial regulation.
• The bank lending channel is seen as an alternative to sticky price models, offering a more accurate representation of monetary policy effects.

Conclusion

The NBER Program on Corporate Finance has evolved to become a key player in understanding the interplay between microeconomic behavior and macroeconomic outcomes. It has shifted from a narrow focus on corporate finance to a broader examination of financial systems, behavioral factors, and regulatory implications, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. This program continues to provide robust and relevant insights that extend beyond its traditional scope, influencing macroeconomic policy and financial regulation.